The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have gone 123-72 for +37.29 units, an ROI of +19.1%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-125 at CIN)

Trend: Underdogs are on a 28-15 (65.1%, +20.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 47.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-102 vs. TOR)

Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 35-7 (+18.04 units) when he starts vs. AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-144 vs. CWS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 123-95 for -1.54 units and an ROI of -0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-125 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-101 at STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another GO AGAINST angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 37-68 for -36.71 units and an ROI of -35%.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-157 vs. CLE)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 78-97 for +5.79 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, but it did lose -2.97 units last week and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+104 vs. NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+144 at ATL), COLORADO (+162 at CHC), MINNESOTA (+109 at TEX)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 33-15 for -1.05 units.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 19-11 start for -5.53 units, and an ROI of -18.4%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 142-172 for -14.11 units. This ROI of -4.5% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect … yet.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-101 at STL), BOSTON (-102 vs. TOR), DETROIT (+152 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+119 at WSH)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 123-72 for +37.29 units, an ROI of +19.1%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-125 at CIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 90-109 start for -12.68 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 38-51 for -11.81 units and an ROI of -13.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – MINNESOTA (+109 at TEX)
3 games – WASHINGTON (-143 vs. KC)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 143-187 for -41.07 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+101 vs. TOR)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 413-356 but for -89.74 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-144 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-175 vs. SF), SEATTLE (-157 vs. BAL)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 437-386 record for +46.09 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,101-1,993 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+104 vs. NYM), DETROIT (+141 at HOU), ATHLETICS (-143 vs. PIT)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,131-2,699 (44.1%) for -263.65 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+148 at PHI), NY METS (-125 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-101 at STL), PITTSBURGH (+119 at ATH), BALTIMORE (+130 at SEA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 644-531 (54.8%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.71 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-175 vs. SF)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allowing >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 193-227 SU record for +41.10 units and an ROI of 9.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+119 at ATH)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), UNDERDOGS between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 224-258 SU but for +46.76 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+119 at ATH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT +152 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TB-LAD OVER 8 (+0.6), TOR-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NYM-CIN UNDER 10 (-0.9), CWS-NYY UNDER 8 (-0.7), DET-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MIAMI (36-37) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (39-33)
Trend: Over the total is 20-9-3 (+10.10 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 8)

(903) NEW YORK-NL (32-40) at (904) CINCINNATI (34-37)
Trend: NYM is 12-3 (+8.35 units) in the shorter pick’-em/favorite line scenario (-110 to -131) with starter Kodai Senga in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-125 at CIN)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (29-43) at (906) ATLANTA (46-25)
Trend: Adrian Houser’s teams are 1-5 (-4.30 units) in his last six starts vs. Atlanta
Trend: Adrian Houser’s teams are 10-22 (-7.79 units) when he starts as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+144 at ATL)

Trend: ATL is 5-10 (-11.98 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-175 vs. SF)

(907) SAN DIEGO (37-34) at (908) ST LOUIS (39-31)
Trend: STL is 6-9 (-5.72 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-120 vs. SD)

(909) COLORADO (27-46) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (38-35)
Trend: CHC is 19-36 (-14.26 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs. COL)

(913) CHICAGO-AL (38-32) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (43-27)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 35-7 (+18.04 units) when he starts vs. AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-144 vs. CWS)

(915) MINNESOTA (34-40) at (916) TEXAS (35-37)
Trend: Over the total is 25-14-4 (+9.60 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

(917) DETROIT (30-42) at (918) HOUSTON (33-41)
Trend: DET is 12-26 (-16.61 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+152 at HOU)

(921) KANSAS CITY (29-44) at (922) WASHINGTON (38-35)
Trend: KC is 3-16 (-15.49 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+119 at WSH)

Trend: Over the total is 24-9-3 (+14.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-WSH (o/u at 8.5)

(923) CLEVELAND (39-33) at (924) MILWAUKEE (43-26)
Trend: CLE is 20-9 (+7.01 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at MIL)

(925) PITTSBURGH (36-37) at (926) ATHLETICS (36-36)
Trend: PIT has a 0-3 team record vs. the Athletics with starter Mitch Keller in his career
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+119 at ATH)

(927) LOS ANGELES-AL (29-44) at (928) ARIZONA (37-35)
Trend: LAA is 7-17 (-10.48 units) on the road in the -160 to +131 line range with starter Reid Detmers in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-109 at AZ)

(929) TAMPA BAY (41-28) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (46-27)
Trend: TB is 15-6 (+11.04 units) on the run line vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 at LAD)

Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 6/15-Wed 6/17
Trend: Home teams are 23-11 (67.6%, +8.46 units) in the the last 34 games between San Diego and St. Louis
— The ROI on this trend is 24.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-120 vs. SD)

Series #30: Toronto at Boston, Tue 6/16-Thu 6/18
Trend: Underdogs are on a 28-15 (65.1%, +20.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 47.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-102 vs. TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2025 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BOSTON, PITTSBURGH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 UNITS and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-CHC

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-21 (43.2%) -10.37 units, ROI: -28%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-175 vs. SF)

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