Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 474-420 record for +47.30 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+163 at CLE)
Trend: Over the total is 18-3 (85.7%, +14.80 units) in Mariners-Red Sox games at Fenway Park since 2019
— The ROI on this trend is 70.5%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 7)
Trend: Matthew Boyd’s teams are 14-1 (+11.99 units) in his last 15 home night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-124 vs. MIL)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: PITTSBURGH -158 vs. SF (projections have line at PIT -187)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 200-160 for +0.54 units.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+100 at MIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 82-124 for -45.27 units and an ROI of -22%. Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-170 at WSH), BOSTON (-116 vs. SEA), HOUSTON (-105 vs. CWS)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, with a month left, they are now 134-203 start for -29.29 units (-8.7% ROI) after losing about 39 units over the 2 1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, its usual territory, and continues to fall fast.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+158 vs. ATL), ATHLETICS (+195 at TEX), COLORADO (+131 vs. BAL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 85-47 for -18.63 units, ROI -14.1%.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-210 vs. ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 280-343 for -26.63 units, and comes off a rough two-week stretch, giving back over 16 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+116 at CHC), ARIZONA (+120 vs. PHI), DETROIT (+100 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 at HOU), MIAMI (+106 at KC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 235-159 for +46.96 units, an ROI of +11.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-116 vs. SEA), TAMPA BAY (-124 vs. NYM)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 173-197 start for -37.84 units (ROI -10.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 75-97 for -22.2 units and a solid ROI -12.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – SAN FRANCISCO (+147 at PIT), MINNESOTA (-107 vs. DET), HOUSTON (-105 vs. CWS)
3+ games – TORONTO (+163 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-129 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 144-168 for -2.49 units. However, it has lost -15.79 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+108 at BOS), ATHLETICS (+195 at TEX), COLORADO (+131 vs. BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 530-424 for +42.85 units and an ROI of 4.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+163 at CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 457-393 but for -96.31 units and an ROI of -11.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-158 vs. SF), KANSAS CITY (-114 vs. MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 474-420 record for +47.30 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+163 at CLE)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,217-2,093 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.07 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-175 vs. TOR), BOSTON (-119 vs. SEA), MINNESOTA (-107 vs. DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-124 vs. MIL), LA ANGELS (+168 vs. NYY)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,283-2,870 (44.3%) for -273.18 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+100 at MIN), ATHLETICS (+195 at TEX), BALTIMORE (-140 at COL), NY YANKEES (-180 at LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-129 at AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 679-571 (54.3%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.02 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-124 vs. NYM)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 400-201 (66.6%) for +59.66 units and an ROI of 9.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-124 vs. MIL), MINNESOTA (-107 vs. DET)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 204-241 SU record for +41.33 units and an ROI of 9.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+125 vs. SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 337-346 run (+14.92 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): COLORADO (+131 vs. BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 275-178 in their last 453 tries (+45.36 units, ROI: 10%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-129 at AZ)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 583-568 for +26.36 units, good for +2.3% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: WASHINGTON +158 (+30 diff), TORONTO +163 (+28), ATHLETICS +195 (+16), DETROIT +100 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH -158 (+29 diff), BALTIMORE -140 (+29), TAMPA BAY -124 (+28), BOSTON -116 (+23), KANSAS CITY -114 (+23)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. When the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 21-15-2 for +3.53 units and an ROI of 9.8%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SEA-BOS OVER 7 (+1.9), ATH-TEX OVER 7.5 (+1.2)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 118-93 for +13.35 units and an ROI of 6.3%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: STL-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (73-65) at (952) CINCINNATI (65-73)
Trend: SD is 20-5 (+14.53 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-134 at CIN)
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (57-81) at (954) PITTSBURGH (67-71)
Trend: PIT is 12-2 (+9.17 units) in home night games versus non-divisional opponents with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-158 vs. SF)
(957) MILWAUKEE (85-53) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (78-60)
Trend: Over the total is 27-14 (+11.60 units) when CHC faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 10)
Trend: Matthew Boyd’s teams are 14-1 (+11.99 units) when he starts in home night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-124 vs. MIL)
(959) PHILADELPHIA (78-60) at (960) ARIZONA (73-66)
Trend: PHI is 27-41 (-16.48 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at AZ)
Trend: AZ is 16-4 (+11.97 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 20 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+120 vs. PHI)
(961) ST LOUIS (68-70) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-55)
Trend: Under the total is 15-10-1 (+4.10 units) with starter Michael McGreevy since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-LAD (o/u at 9)
(965) SEATTLE (64-74) at (966) BOSTON (75-63)
Trend: SEA is 26-44 (-20.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at BOS)
Trend: SEA is 3-13 (-9.72 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+108 at BOS)
(967) DETROIT (63-74) at (968) MINNESOTA (66-72)
Trend: Under the total is 17-4 (+12.70 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIN (o/u at 8.5)
(969) ATHLETICS (53-85) at (970) TEXAS (68-70)
Trend: Under the total is 9-4-1 (+4.50 units) when starter MacKenzie Gore is a larger home favorite of -140 or higher since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 12-18 (-11.82 units) when he starts in home games vs. teams with losing records in last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-210 vs. ATH)
(971) CHICAGO-AL (72-65) at (972) HOUSTON (70-68)
Trend: Over the total is 52-26-1 (+23.40 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
(973) NEW YORK-AL (78-60) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-85)
Trend: Under the total is 45-26-1 (+16.40 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-LAA (o/u at 7.5)
(975) NEW YORK-NL (62-76) at (976) TAMPA BAY (82-55)
Trend: TB is 46-24 (+11.27 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-124 vs. NYM)
(977) MIAMI (69-69) at (978) KANSAS CITY (62-76)
Trend: MIA is 29-33 (-20.79 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1.5 at KC)
(979) BALTIMORE (69-69) at (980) COLORADO (52-86)
Trend: BAL is 18-6 (+10.61 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-140 at COL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Mon 8/31-Wed 9/2
Trend: Over the total is 18-3 (85.7%, +14.80 units) in SEA-BOS games at Fenway Park since 2019
— The ROI on this trend is 70.5%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 7)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-187 vs. STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-124 vs. NYM), BOSTON (-116 vs. SEA), KANSAS CITY (-114 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority-handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-114 vs. MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-124 vs. MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH (o/u at 10)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 20-20 (50%) +7.42 units, ROI: 18.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+106 at KC)
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