Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Wild-card totals have gone 40-22 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +18.05 units, or an ROI of 29.1%.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-ATL (o/u at 6.5), CWS-HOU (o/u at 8), BOS-NYY (o/u at 6.5), CHC-SD (o/u at 7)
Trend: NYY has a 4-1 record with starter Cam Schlitter versus rival Boston (he has a 0.56 ERA across these five appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-145 vs BOS)
Trend: PHI is 8-23 (-14.01 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+168 at ATL)
* Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in playoff series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 93-84 on RUN LINES (+23.1 units, ROI: 13.1%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs PHI), HOUSTON (-1.5 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-1.5 vs CHC)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2016)
* BOSTON: 21-14 to the Over for +7.6 units
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 6.5)
* CHICAGO CUBS: 22-13 to the Under for +7.95 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-SD (o/u at 7)
* CHI WHITE SOX: 2-5 SU for -3.25 units
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at HOU)
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 87-84 SU (-31.84 units, ROI: -18.6%)
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-126 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-145 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-130 vs CHC)
Series wins status
Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 93-84 on RUN LINES (+23.1 units, ROI: 13.1%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs PHI), HOUSTON (-1.5 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-1.5 vs CHC)
Trends based on regular-season records
In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 49-47 SU (+13 units, ROI: 13.5%) and 60-36 on run lines (+13.2 units, ROI: 13.8%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS
Wild-Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild-card round expanded to a three-game series
Wild-card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 23-23 SU (+7.39 units, ROI: 16.1%) and 29-17 (+2.2 units, ROI: 4.8%) on run lines surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 at HOU), BOSTON (+120 at NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at SD)
Wild-card totals have gone 40-22 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining +18.05 units, or an ROI of 29.1%.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-ATL (o/u at 6.5), CWS-HOU (o/u at 8), BOS-NYY (o/u at 6.5), CHC-SD (o/u at 7)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 219-177 for +0.36 units (ROI: 0.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-112 at WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen must be accounted for in all games. For 2026, these teams went 68-59 for -10.97 units for an ROI of -8.6%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+168 at ATL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. For the 2026 season, these teams again struggled, 99-143 for -48.65 units and an ROI of -20.1%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-126 vs CWS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-205 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-130 vs CHC)
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record was 116-62 for -22.06 units, ROI -12.4%.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-205 vs PHI)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has emerged when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 at HOU), BOSTON (+120 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they went 192-235 for -57.88 units (ROI -13.6%).
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-126 vs CWS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2253-2138 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -284.37 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-126 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-130 vs CHC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2334-2916 (44.5%) for -262.91 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+120 at NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better: teams with a 10-cent edge against the actual odds have gone 681-685 for +8.19 units, good for +0.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA +168 (+33 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SAN DIEGO -130 (+11 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(941) BOSTON (87-75) at (942) NEW YORK-AL (93-68)
Trend: Under the total is 56-43-3 (+8.70 units) in BOS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: NYY has a 4-1 record with starter Cam Schlitter versus rival Boston (he has a 0.56 ERA across these five appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-145 vs BOS)
(943) CHICAGO-NL (89-73) at (944) SAN DIEGO (91-71)
Trend: Over the total is 21-11-2 (+8.90 units) when CHC is a ML underdog this season
Trend: Over the total is 14-5 (+8.40 units) as favorites within -115 to -165 line range with starter Michael King against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-SD (o/u at 7)
Trend: SD is 51-30 (+15.76 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-130 vs CHC)
(945) PHILADELPHIA (88-74) at (946) ATLANTA (94-68)
Trend: PHI is 8-23 (-14.01 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+168 at ATL)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo’s teams are 9-4 (+3.40 units) when he starts in road day games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+168 at ATL)
(947) CHICAGO-AL (84-78) at (948) HOUSTON (81-81)
Trend: Over the total is 47-33-1 (+10.70 units) in CWS road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8)
Top head-to-head series trends
Series #1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Trend: Over the total is 4-1-1 (80%, +2.90 units) in the Phillies-Braves rivalry at Truist Park this season
— The ROI on this trend is 58%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 6.5)
Series #2: Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Trend: Under the total is 7-2 (77.8%, +4.95 units) in the last nine of the White Sox-Astros series at Dalkin Park
— The ROI on this trend is 55%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8)
Series #3: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Trend: NY YANKEES are on a 6-2 surge (75%, +3.83 units) in the last eight games hosting rival Boston at Yankee Stadium
— The ROI on this trend is 47.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-145 vs BOS)
Series #4: Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Trend: CHICAGO CUBS have won five straight games (100%, +5.00 units) versus San Diego
— The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-126 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5%. These are typically high-bet-volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
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