Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 54-23 SU for +22.16 units (ROI: 28.8%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-127 at ATL)
Trend: Arizona is 15-4 (+10.94 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 19 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-102 vs CHC)
Trend: San Francisco is 2-17 in the last 19 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-104 vs CIN)
Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 218-165 (+28.70 units, ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-135 at LAA), KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 197-151 for +7.80 units and an ROI of +2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-102 vs CHC), BALTIMORE (-106 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 56-50 for -10.52 units for an ROI of -9.9%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-128 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 78-119 for -44.99 units and an ROI of -22.8%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+139 vs MIL), LA ANGELS (+126 vs CLE)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 272-326 for -18.28 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 81-79, +15.91 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-102 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (-104 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+119 vs LAD), TAMPA BAY (+103 at DET)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 226-149 for +50.00 units, an ROI of +13.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-124 vs COL), NY YANKEES (-115 vs HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-119 vs TEX), BALTIMORE (-106 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-203 start for -39.98 units (ROI -11.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 72-94 for -22.02 units and a solid ROI of -13.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – SEATTLE (+119 vs PHI), PITTSBURGH (+120 at SD)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 138-159 for +0.10 units. However, it has lost -13.20 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-103 at SF), LA ANGELS (+126 vs CLE), ST LOUIS (-101 vs BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 476-500 but for +31.68 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-103 at SF), LA ANGELS (+126 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 416-473 but for +87.71 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+103 at DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2207-2087 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -272.31 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+107 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-119 vs TEX), BALTIMORE (-106 at STL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2272-2856 (44.3%) for -266.86 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+103 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (-128 at SEA), CINCINNATI (-103 at SF), PITTSBURGH (+120 at SD), MILWAUKEE (-149 at NYM), MINNESOTA (-127 at ATH)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 362-318 (53.2%) for +27.44 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-101 vs BAL)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 114-165 SU (-25.11 units, ROI: -9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+139 vs MIL)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 54-23 SU for +22.16 units (ROI: 28.8%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-127 at ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 93-72 (+25.31 units, ROI: 15.3%) in their last 165 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 218-165 (+28.70 units, ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-135 at LAA), KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 272-176 in their last 448 tries (+45.29 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-135 at LAA), KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 48-28 (+20.68 units, ROI: 27.2%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 561-548 for +23.83 units, good for +2.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +119 (+29 diff), ARIZONA -102 (+20), SAN FRANCISCO -104 (+17), SEATTLE +119 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -119 (+26 diff), WASHINGTON -124 (+23), SAN DIEGO -129 (+22), BOSTON -129 (+16), DETROIT -110 (+12)
If you’re looking for something that has produced a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 117-90 for +15.95 units and an ROI of 7.7%. TODAY’s MATCHES:
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOU-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.7), MIL-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) CHICAGO-NL (76-57) at (952) ARIZONA (70-63)
Trend: AZ is 15-4 (+10.94 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 19 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-102 vs CHC)
(953) CINCINNATI (62-71) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (54-78)
Trend: CIN is just 19-22 (-9.57 units) with starter Nick Lodolo in his career vs opponents with a losing record
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-103 at SF)
Trend: SF is 2-17 in L19 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-104 vs CIN)
(955) PITTSBURGH (65-69) at (956) SAN DIEGO (71-62)
Trend: SD is 19-5 (+13.53 units) against non-divisonal teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-129 vs PIT)
(957) COLORADO (51-81) at (958) WASHINGTON (62-72)
Trend: Over the total is 37-25-3 (+9.50 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COL-WSH (o/u at 9)
(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-52) at (962) ATLANTA (77-55)
Trend: Under the total is 16-6 (+9.40 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 8.5)
(963) TAMPA BAY (78-54) at (964) DETROIT (62-70)
Trend: Under the total is 16-4 (+11.70 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-DET (o/u at 7.5)
(965) CLEVELAND (67-66) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-81)
Trend: Over the total is 15-4 (+10.50 units) when CLE faces non-divisional AL teams with starter Joey Cantillo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Under the total is 42-24-1 (+15.60 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
(967) HOUSTON (66-66) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (74-57)
Trend: Under the total is 62-42-5 (+15.80 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-NYY (o/u at 9)
(973) MINNESOTA (64-69) at (974) ATHLETICS (52-81)
Trend: Over the total is 40-21-6 (+16.90 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
(975) PHILADELPHIA (73-60) at (976) SEATTLE (64-69)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo’s teams are 8-4 (+2.40 units) when he starts in road day games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-128 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 28-6 (+19.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+119 vs PHI)
(977) BOSTON (73-59) at (978) MIAMI (67-66)
Trend: Under the total is 34-15-1 (+17.35 units) when Sonny Gray’s teams are in the -130 to -155 favorite line range since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 7.5)
(979) BALTIMORE (64-68) at (980) ST LOUIS (66-67)
Trend: Under the total is 15-9-1 (+5.25 units) with starter Michael McGreevy since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-STL (o/u at 8.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Underdogs are 18-13 (58.1%, +7.12 units) in the last 31 of AZ-CHC head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 23%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-102 vs CHC)
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 24-10 (70.6%, +12.91 units) in the last 34 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 38%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+126 vs CLE)
Series #28: Houston at NY Yankees, Tue 8/25-Thu 8/27
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 14-6 (70%, +7.35 units) run versus Houston
– The ROI on this trend is 36.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-115 vs HOU)
Series #35: Texas at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: TEXAS is 17-5 (77.3%, +9.90 units) in their last 22 games versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 45%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+111 at CWS)
Series #36: Minnesota at Athletics, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Favorites are on a 23-7 (76.7%, +11.47 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 38.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-127 at ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TAMPA BAY (+108 at DET), KANSAS CITY (+136 at TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-128 at SEA), BOSTON (-129 at MIA), BALTIMORE (-106 at STL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 31)
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