Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 7) at Seattle Mariners
The Mariners (64-69) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 9-2 as +105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as -115 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Phillies (73-60) start lefty Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.35 ERA) and the Mariners turn to righty Bryan Woo (9-8, 4.10 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -120 road favorite and Seattle a +100 home dog.
Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Phillies to avoid the sweep, pushing Philadelphia up from -120 to -130, with some shops touching as high as -135.
At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a hefty 97% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert.
The Phillies offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Philadelphia has the better bats, hitting .242 with 602 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .230 with 526 runs scored.
The Phillies are 4-0 in Luzardo’s last four starts. He has posted a 2.30 ERA in his last four starts, giving up only 7 earned runs in 27.1 innings pitched. He is 7-0 with a 1.95 ERA on the road compared to 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA at home.
The Mariners are only hitting .217 against lefties this season, ranking dead last in MLB.
4:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-135, 8)
The Pirates (65-69) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-2 in extras as +100 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 1-0 as +120 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Pirates send out righty Bubba Chandler (6-8, 4.38 ERA) and the Padres (71-62) go with fellow righty Randy Vasquez (9-6, 4.19 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -130 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +110 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Padres to earn a win and avoid the sweep, pushing San Diego up from -130 to -135 or even as high as -140 across the market.
At Circa, the Padres are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” one-way discrepancy from the Vegas pros.
San Diego offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Vasquez has pitched well in four August starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 23 innings pitched (3.13 ERA).
Meanwhile, Chandler has gone 2-5 with 4.54 ERA on the road compared to 4-3 with 4.17 ERA at home.
The Padres are 40-28 (59%) at home, the 7th best home record in MLB. Conversely, the Pirates are 31-37 (46%) on the road.
7:07 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays (-145, 8.5)
The Royals (59-74) took last night’s series opener 5-3, coming through as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Royals hand the ball to righty Randy Dobnak (2-1, 1.58 ERA) and the Blue Jays (64-69) counter with fellow righty Spencer Miles (5-2, 3.02 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -135 home favorite and Kansas City a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays to bounce back with a win laying short chalk at home, pushing Toronto up from -135 to -145, with some shops touching as high as -150.
At Circa, the Blue Jays are receiving are only receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 72% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
Toronto offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Miles has posted a 1.74 ERA in ten August appearances, allowing only 2 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched. He is 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA at home compared to 0-1 with a 3.34 ERA on the road.
The Blue Jays have a sizable edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.77 (8th) compared to 5.20 for the Royals (29th).
Toronto is hitting .254 (5th in MLB) against righties while Kansas City is hitting .245 (13th).
Kansas City has gone 23-44 (34%) on the road, the 2nd worst road record in MLB.
