Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 62-26 (71.4%) for +19.44 units since 2000, an ROI of 22.1%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 34-15-3 (+17.50 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* MILWAUKEE: 25-10-1 to the Under for +13.85 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
Line angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2-18 have been very vulnerable. They are just 97-91 SU (-32.37 units, ROI: -17.2%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 68-69 SU (-19.17 units, ROI: -14%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
Series wins status
Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 44-48 SU (-27.65 units, ROI: -30.1%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 45-72 SU (-16.24 units, ROI: -13.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+142 at LAD)
Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 114-110-3, and Overs have produced a return of +18.44 units, an ROI of 8.2%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
LCS Round angles
– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 62-26 (71.4%) for +19.44 units since 2000, an ROI of 22.1%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 48-46 (+14 units, ROI: 14.9%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+142 at LAD)
– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same-series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 27-42 SU (-21.44 units, ROI: -31.1%) since 2015, including 4-9 the last two years.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+142 at LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (8-6, -1.24 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (7-5, +3.01 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+142 at LAD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 59-27 SU for +22.23 units (ROI: 25.8%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(909) MILWAUKEE (108-60) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (103-65)
Trend: MIL has a 0-2 record with starter Robert Gasser versus LAD (he has a 5.56 ERA across three total appearances)
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+142 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 34-15-3 (+17.50 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: MIL is 17-6 (+8.34 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend: LAD is 33-50 (-22.18 units) on the run line at home this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at LAD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (17-11, +1.87 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-172 vs MIL)
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