Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since the Wild Card playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 11-5 SU (+7.96 units, ROI: 49.8%) and 10-6 (+3.4 units, ROI: 21.3%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
* Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 182-98 SU (+44.37 units, ROI: 15.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-117 at ATL)
* Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 41-67 SU (-16.49 units, ROI: -15.3%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+122 at HOU)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2016)
* BOSTON: 22-14 to the Over for +8.6 units
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 7)
* CHICAGO CUBS: 22-14 to the Under for +6.80 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-SD (o/u at 7)
Line Angles
– Since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 56-66 for -25.53 units (ROI: -20.9%)
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-117 at ATL)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 89-85 SU (-31.07 units, ROI: -17.9%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-144 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-137 vs CHC)
Coming off losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 65-66 SU (-18.04 units, ROI: -13.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS)
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 75-54 SU (+11.49 units, ROI: 8.9%) and 66-63 on run lines (+12.5 units, ROI: 9.7%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 42-45 SU (-24.79 units, ROI: -28.5%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS)
Stats from last game trends
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 59-53 surge on run lines (+3.95 units, ROI: +3.5%) since 2014.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-1.5 vs CHC)
– Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 41-67 SU (-16.49 units, ROI: -15.3%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+122 at HOU)
Trends based upon regular season records
– In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 49-50 SU (+10 units, ROI: 10.1%) and 60-39 on run lines (+7.54 units, ROI: 7.6%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS
Wild Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series
– Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 24-26 SU (+5.41 units, ROI: 10.8%) surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+122 at HOU), BOSTON (+120 at NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SD)
– Wild Card totals have gone 40-26 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +13.64 units, or an ROI of 20.7%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL FOUR GAMES
– Since the Wild Card playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 11-5 SU (+7.96 units, ROI: 49.8%) and 10-6 (+3.4 units, ROI: 21.3%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams went 68-59 for -10.97 units for an ROI of -8.6% (0-1, -1.00 unit in the playoffs).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-117 at ATL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (2-0, +2.00 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-137 vs CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (1-1, +0.02 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-103 vs PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+122 at HOU), BOSTON (+120 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they went 192-235 for -57.88 units (ROI -13.6%) (0-1, -1.23 units in the playoffs).
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-144 vs BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,254-2,139 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -284.60 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-144 vs BOS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,334-2,917 (44.5%) for -263.91 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+120 at NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SD)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 182-98 SU (+44.37 units, ROI: 15.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-117 at ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 683-686 for +9.19 units, good for +0.7% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +122 (+10 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SAN DIEGO -137 (+11 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (88-75) at (902) ATLANTA (95-68)
Trend: PHI is 17-29 (-17.86 units) in the line range of -145 or worse (or underdog) with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-117 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 19-11-2 (+6.90 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 7)
(903) CHICAGO-AL (85-78) at (904) HOUSTON (81-82)
Trend: Over the total is 48-33-1 (+11.70 units) in CWS road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: HOU has a 6-0 team record with starter Hunter Brown versus Chicago White Sox in his career (he has a 2.90 ERA in these six appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS)
(905) BOSTON (87-76) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (94-68)
Trend: Under the total is 56-44-3 (+7.60 units) in BOS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 7)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (89-74) at (908) SAN DIEGO (92-71)
Trend: Over the total is 22-11-2 (+9.90 units) when CHC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-SD (o/u at 7)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 15-2 (+12.97 units) in his last 17 starts on the ROAD vs NL West opponents within line range of +125 or higher
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SD)
Trend: SD is 52-30 (+16.76 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-137 vs CHC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Trend: Over the total is 5-1-1 (83.3%, +3.90 units) in the Phillies-Braves rivalry at Truist Park this season
– The ROI on this trend is 65%}
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 7)
Series #2: Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Trend: Under the total is 7-3 (70%, +3.80 units) in the last 10 of the White Sox-Astros set at Dalkin Park
– The ROI on this trend is 38%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 7.5)
Series #3: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Trend: NY YANKEES are on a 7-2 surge (77.8%, +4.83 units) in the last nine games hosting rival Boston at Yankee Stadium
– The ROI on this trend is 53.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-144 vs BOS)
Series #4: Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Trend: CHICAGO CUBS have won five of their last six games (83.3%, +4.00 units) versus San Diego
– The ROI on this trend is 66.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (2-2, -0.23 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-117 at ATL), HOUSTON (-147 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-144 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-137 vs CHC)
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