MLB Best Bets Today September 30
Day 2 of the MLB Playoffs is filled with elimination games, which is what happens with a best-of-three series. The Braves, White Sox, Yankees, and Padres are all hoping to move on, while the Phillies, Astros, Red Sox, and Cubs are hoping to stay alive. We had some weird pitching setups on Tuesday, including some full-fledged bullpen games, but that is not the case today, as we have eight traditional starting pitchers, including some aces on the hill.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 30:
Phillies (-117, 7) at Braves
2 p.m. ET (NBC)
Don Mattingly took the right approach yesterday. While it was a surprise to see Jhoan Duran in the seventh inning, the team that wins Game 1 of the best-of-three Wild Card Round is 15-1 for the series. So, Mattingly tried to go all out to win that one and Duran unfortunately gave up the three-run homer to Austin Riley in what seemed like an innocent inning up until that point.
With Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler ready to be deployed, Mattingly had to love his chances of winning one of the next two games. Now, though, his team needs to win both of them to advance. At least they are favored in today’s tilt with Sanchez up against Tyler Mahle. The old adage is that “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher”, so while the Phillies had a pretty devastating loss, their ace is on the bump today.
Sanchez posted a 2.91 ERA with a 3.39 xERA and a 2.80 FIP over his 207 innings of work. The higher xERA is a byproduct of allowing a 41.9% Hard Hit%, but hard-hit ground balls are way less detrimental than hard-hit fly balls and line drives. Sanchez’s 57.7% GB% was among the league’s best, as was his 5.3% BB%. He’s a true front-line starter and just the guy you’d want today if you’re trying to avoid elimination.
Sanchez struck out 10 over seven innings last time out against the Rays as a tough-luck loser with his team trying to lock up a playoff spot. He’s on the more traditional four days rest between starts here, which is why he didn’t start Game 1 yesterday. He was better on four days rest than five days rest, posting a 2.71 ERA with 102 K in 89.2 innings of work. I’d expect him to be very good today.
I’m less sure about Tyler Mahle, who had a 3.99 ERA with a 3.93 xERA and a 3.99 FIP during a fine 2026 campaign. His 149 innings were the second-most he’s thrown in a MLB season and he was excellent for the Braves post-Trade Deadline with a 1.99 ERA over nine starts. Mahle had a 3.59 xERA and a 3.22 FIP, as his 87.4% LOB% really carried his ERA. His .253 BABIP was 56 points lower than what he had over 18 starts with the Giants.
The Braves had Mahle really lean into his splitter at the expense of his cutter. Batters hit .242 with a .260 xBA and had a .354 SLG with a .392 xSLG against his splitter in the regular season. Compare that to a .317 BA (.274 xBA) and .439 SLG (.388 xSLG) against the cutter. The splitter also induced a much higher Whiff%. Lefties posted a .230/.286/.414 slash against Mahle with the Giants. They batted .183/.220/.333 with the shift to throwing more splitters.
I like the Under 7 in this one. Mahle was effective against the Phillies in two September starts and really minimized hard contact with just one Barrel allowed and a 31% Hard Hit%. He should leverage the splitter even more now that it’s the playoffs. Sanchez should be able to work deep into the game for the Phillies and limit their bullpen exposure.
Pick: Under 7 (-106)
White Sox at Astros (-147, 7.5)
5 p.m. ET (Peacock/NBCSN)
With Hunter Brown looming, the White Sox did what they needed to do on Tuesday. They gave themselves the best possible chance to advance by winning the battle of the bullpens. But, it did come at an expense. Ace reliever Grant Taylor threw 2.1 innings and 54 pitches, so I can’t imagine that he’s available today. He’ll say that he is because it’s the playoffs, but I think Will Venable views him as an ICOE – in case of emergency – pitcher.
It’ll be up to Sean Burke and the others to push the White Sox to the ALDS against the hated rival Guardians. Burke posted a 3.34 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 3.62 FIP over the regular season, doing an excellent job keeping the ball in the park with just a 9.2% HR/FB%. Remember, home runs are the currency of scoring in the playoffs. The team that hit more home runs yesterday went 3-0. Being able to keep the ball in the yard is more important than ever in the postseason environment.
Burke (no relation) also racked up over a strikeout per inning. Also, with a mounting workload, he was better in the second half than the first half and only gave up one homer out of 103 batters in September. He held right-handed batters to a .218/.301/.345 slash, as lefties hit 13 of the 19 homers he allowed. He was also better on the road than at home, for whatever reason.
And this is where the handicap gets interesting. Brown had a 14.1% HR/FB% with 11 HR allowed over 107.1 innings of work. It was kind of a throwaway season for the Houston ace, as he made two starts in March and then missed 2.5 months. In three starts around the All-Star Break, he allowed 14 runs. From 7/25 on, Brown posted a 2.67 ERA with a 2.88 xERA and a 3.06 FIP. He only allowed one homer over his last six starts.
Lefties hit Brown harder, posting a 44.1% Hard Hit% and an 8.4% Barrel% compared to 28.8% and 3.2% for righties. That could be a potential area of strength for the White Sox, as a lot of their power is left-handed outside of Miguel Vargas.
This is a game that could feature some good live betting opportunities. Sean Newcomb threw 19 pitches working for the third time in four days. Taylor is likely unavailable. The Astros got everybody some work yesterday, including Bryan Abreu, who hadn’t pitched since Thursday, and Josh Hader, who hadn’t pitched since Wednesday.
If this one is close late, we’ll see how the managers deploy their relief arms. We could absolutely see Josh Hader treated like Taylor tonight if Joe Espada gets the chance. No bet from me pregame here, but we could see a good chance to strike live.
Red Sox at Yankees (-144, 7)
8 p.m. ET (NBC)
A couple of wily vets line up here with Sonny Gray and Max Fried. Fried had the better stat line overall with a 2.80 ERA, 2.52 xERA, and a 2.65 FIP, while Gray turned in a 2.72 ERA, 3.85 xERA, and 3.47 FIP. Both guys did well to suppress home runs, as Gray had a 9.9% HR/FB%, but Fried’s 3.8% HR/FB% was spectacular in his 20 starts.
Fried is something of a wild card here, though. It’s been a weird season, as he missed more than two months from mid-May to mid-July and then missed a couple more weeks in August. From his 8/29 return on, Fried allowed eight runs on 20 hits in 26.1 innings with a 25/6 K/BB ratio, though he did allow four runs in his final playoff tune-up on September 22.
Over the second half, the Red Sox were 18th in wOBA at .304 against LHP, so a below average offense. They only batted .229 in that split with a 23.5% K%. Their 10.4% HR/FB% ranked 18th. This isn’t really an ideal matchup going up against Fried, even if he’s not fully locked in.
Gray had an interesting campaign as well. His 21.8% K% was the lowest he’s had since his 2018 season with the Yankees, but his 83.2% LOB% was a career-best. You normally don’t see a higher strand rate with a lower K%. Gray’s 9.9% SwStr% marked just the second time since 2016 that he’s been below 10%. That said, he did get more chase than ever before, helping to induce more weak contact than he usually does.
The thing about Gray is that he doesn’t have one dominant pitch. He throws five different pitches at least 15.9% of the time. So, he’s about changing speeds and eye levels to keep hitters off-balance. Gray pivoting to more sinkers was a separator this season because batters hit .376 with a .594 SLG against his four-seam last season. They’ve hit .302 with a .481 SLG this season, but he’s scaled back the usage of that pitch, opting for more sinkers and sweepers. We should see a heavy diet of sweepers tonight, a pitch that opposing batters have hit .137 on with a .236 SLG this season.
Gray had more strikeouts (111) on the pitch last season than batted ball events (102). He had 75 K on the pitch this season with 86 batted ball events. I would assume he heavily leverages that pitch. The Yankees had the 11th-highest Whiff Rate on the “slider group” of sliders/sweepers/slurves. They were 12th in wOBA, but at just .290, and 14th in SLG at .380.
Fried is a similar “kitchen sink” type of guy with six pitches that he throws at least 12% of the time, with the cutter chief among them.
This game strikes me as a real rock fight kind of battle. The heavy juice on Under 7 seems to follow that line of thinking. If you’re going to give me a toss-up, low-scoring game here, the Red Sox +120 would be my look. I’m assuming we see a heavy diet of Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, and Aroldis Chapman here. That gives me enough hope to back the dog.
Pick: Red Sox +120
Cubs at Padres (-143, 7)
10 p.m. ET (Peacock/NBCSN)
What a magnificent outcome for the Padres yesterday. They won, flexed some offensive muscle, and got to avoid their high-leverage relievers by winning in blowout fashion. The silver lining for the Cubs about getting pummeled is that their best options at the back end of the bullpen were just observers as well.
But, there is a pretty significant bullpen gap in this series and the fact that Michael King took a no-hitter into the seventh against the highest-scoring offense in the league during the regular season seems like a bad sign. San Diego won 17 of 20 heading into the postseason and looked like a team that had been firing on all cylinders, while the Cubs, who had to go to Tropicana Field to play a meaningless game on Sunday before flying all the way out to San Diego didn’t look ready to go.
Again, like I said earlier, “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” and the Cubs got Kevin Gausman to be able to use him in this situation. It wasn’t the best of seasons for Gausman, whose 4.51 ERA was his highest since 2019 and his 3.74 FIP was his second-highest since that same year. He saw a big spike in homers back to his 2010s days, allowing a 12.7% HR/FB%. Once Gausman started using his splitter more around 2019, that’s when his home run rate went down. This season, the splitter wasn’t quite as effective, but was still a highly useful pitch. It was poor slider command that did him in.
So, we’ll see what his pitch selection looks like tonight. There is also the unknown of his shoulder injury, suffered in his final regular season start when he dove to the third base bag to make a great defensive play, but at the expense of his non-throwing shoulder. The front shoulder still plays a big role in pitching mechanics, even not throwing with that arm. It’s a big question mark.
Nick Pivetta only made eight starts during the regular season across 34.2 innings of work. He had a 2.86 ERA with a 3.18 xERA and a 2.21 FIP, as his 4.3% HR/FB% was a great follow-up to last season’s career-best 9.7% mark. With the Phillies and Red Sox, Pivetta served up meatballs like a Little Italy kitchen. Going to a better ballpark helped, but better overall command of his secondaries played a big role as well.
Pivetta only allowed three runs over four September starts, maxing out at 20 batters faced. I think manager Craig Stammen will have a tight leash here if necessary. Yuki Matsui was the only real reliever deployed by Stammen, as Joe Musgrove made his first appearance since 2024 to end the game. That means all of San Diego’s top arms are ready to go and there are a lot of very, very good arms out there.
I do like the Padres at -143, but my hope is that the Cubs score a run first off of Pivetta and we can get a better number on San Diego. They have a clear bullpen advantage and everybody is fresh. I think we can do better with a live betting opportunity. If the Padres jump ahead like they did yesterday, it is what it is, but I’m also sitting on the Padres series price from my series preview, so I’m content with that. If you tailed, so are you.
Pick: Look to live bet the Padres at a number better than the pregame line
