Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 14-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:12 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-165, 7.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Yankees (4-2) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep with a 9-7 win last night as -135 home favorites. Similarly, the Pirates (2-5) just lost two of three against the Rays but avoided the sweep with a 4-2 in the series finale, cashing as -115 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series opener, the Yankees hand the ball to lefty Max Fried (0-0, 3.86 ERA) and the Pirates counter with righty Mitch Keller (1-0, 1.50 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -145 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Bronx Bombers, steaming New York up from -145 to -165. Some shops are even creeping up to -170.
At Circa, the Yankees are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars, indicating massive one-way support from both Pros and Joes out in Vegas.
Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more, like the Yankees here, are 23-10 (70%) with a 17% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 16-5 (76%) with a 26% ROI this season.
The Yankees also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
New York has a big edge at the plate, hitting .278 with 22 homers and 53 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh only hitting .197 with 4 homers and 19 runs scored. The Pirates are only hitting .077 against lefties this season, dead last in MLB.
4:35 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants (-150, 7.5)
The Mariners (3-4) just lost two of three against the Tigers but avoided the sweep by taking the series finale 3-2 as +105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Giants (5-1) just swept the Astros, winning the series finale 6-3 as +145 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series opener, the Mariners start Luis F. Castillo (no record), a 30-year-old journeyman who will be making his first MLB appearance since 2022. Meanwhile, the Giants send out righty Justin Verlander (0-0, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 home favorite and Seattle a +110 road dog. Sharps have laid the wood with the Giants at home, steaming San Francisco up from -125 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Giants are taking in roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in their favor.
Home favorites, like the Giants here, are 43-22 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 22-10 (69%) with a 13% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 17-3 (85%) with a 37% ROI this season.
San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have the better offense (hitting .202 with 30 runs scored vs .172 with 18 runs scored) and the superior pitching staff (team ERA 2.72 vs 4.00).
8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 8.5)
The Brewers (3-4) took last night’s series opener 1-0, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (2-5) trot out righty Nick Martinez (0-1, 6.00 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with lefty Tyler Alexander (0-0, 5.40 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a short -110 home favorite and Cincinnati a +100 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Brew Crew laying modest chalk at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -110 to -130.
At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Brewers here, are 43-22 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 22-8 (73%) with a 19% ROI this season.
The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .218 compared to .197 for the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting just .100 against lefties this season, third worst in MLB.
