Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7.5)
The Padres (72-62) just dropped two of three against the Pirates but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 3-0 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rays (79-54) just took two of three against the Tigers, winning the series finale 3-0 as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Casey Mize (5-7, 3.44 ERA) and the Rays counter with lefty Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.10 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 home favorite and San Diego a +105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays to win the opener at home, pushing Tampa Bay up from -125 to -130 and even -135 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the better offense, hitting .260 with a .329 OBP and 595 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .238 with a .315 OBP and 569 runs scored.
Tampa Bay is 5-2 in McClanahan’s last seven starts. He is 7-1 with a 2.32 ERA at home compared to 2-5 with a 3.91 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Mize has posted a 7.00 ERA in four starts since joining the Padres, giving up 14 earned runs in 18 innings pitched.
The Rays are 43-23 at home, the 3rd best home team in MLB. The Padres are 31-34 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers (-175, 7.5)
The Rangers (66-68) just lost two of three against the White Sox, dropping the series finale 10-4 as +110 road dogs. On the other hand, the Brewers (83-51) just won two of three against the Mets, taking the series finale 8-2 as -155 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rangers send out lefty Cody Bradford (0-2, 3.05 ERA) and the Brewers go with righty Logan Henderson (8-2, 2.60 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -170 home favorite and Texas a +150 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Brewers at home, pushing Milwaukee up from -170 to -175 and even as high as -180 or -185 at some shop across the market.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 88% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Brew Crew at home.
Milwaukee offers correlative betting value as a heavy favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .255 with a .338 OBP and 668 runs scored compared to the Rangers hitting .243 with a .317 OBP and 543 runs scored.
Milwaukee is 10-1 in Henderson’s 11 starts this season. He is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Texas is 1-3 in Bradford’s four starts this season.
Milwaukee is 45-21 at home, the 2nd best home record in MLB. Texas is 30-39 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-125, 9)
The White Sox (70-63) just took two of three against the Rangers, winning the series finale 10-4 as -125 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Twins (64-70) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, losing the series finale 7-4 as -135 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the White Sox start righty Luis Castillo (4-10, 5.19 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with fellow righty Dean Kremer (2-4, 5.22 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -115 home favorite and Chicago a -105 road dog.
The public says “the wrong team is favored” and 60% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing the White Sox.
However, despite the public backing Chicago we’ve seen the line move further toward Minnesota (-115 to -125). This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Twins, as the line has has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Twins are receiving 63% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas pros.
Kremer has pitched well in four starts since joining the Twins, allowing only 8 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched (3.18 ERA).
On the other hand, Castillo has posted a 5.89 ERA in four starts since joining the White Sox, allowing 12 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched.
Minnesota is 35-31 at home. Chicago is 29-36 on the road.
