MLB Best Bets Today August 28
On the eve of college football, on a day with 10 NFL preseason games, it might be easy to forget about the MLB card. We’ve got one day game in Wrigleyville and 14 night games, as a big weekend around the league gets underway. We don’t have too many of these weekends left. Tarik Skubal’s return to Comerica Park is one of today’s biggest stories, along with another installment of the Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry, which features AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler. North of the border, the second betting choice, Dylan Cease, takes on the Mariners. It should be a fun night.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 28:
White Sox vs. Twins Prediction
Pick: White Sox +114
A couple of Trade Deadline starters get the call today, as Luis Castillo goes for the White Sox and Dean Kremer goes for the Twins. I’m not surprised to see a low opinion of Castillo in the market, given that he has a 5.19 ERA with a 4.92 xERA and a 4.69 FIP on the season and has allowed 13 runs in 18.1 innings with the White Sox.
However, let’s apply some context to that. Castillo has faced the Red Sox, Reds, Cubs, and Mets. In the month of August, those teams rank 1st, 24th, 4th, and 6th in wOBA against RHP. So he’s faced three top-six offenses and allowed 13 runs on 22 hits. But in his start against the Reds, he fired seven one-hit, shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. The Twins sit 21st in wOBA against RHP this month. I’m not going to sit here and pretend like Castillo is what he once was, but this should be a much more manageable lineup for him.
Overall, I like Kremer more than I probably should, but I’m not keen on this match. In 141 PA against LHB this season, he’s allowed a .246/.312/.516 slash with a .352 wOBA against. He’s given up 16 extra-base hits, including eight home runs, and has a 9.2% BB% in that split compared to a 6.1% BB% against RHB. Most of Chicago’s more prominent hitters are left-handed. Kremer has a 28.6% K% against RHB, but a 21.3% K% against LHB. All around, he’s just not as effective against lefties and the White Sox should have at least six in the lineup.
Both teams were idle yesterday, so the bullpens are on even footing from a usage standpoint. The White Sox have a 3.83 bullpen ERA in August, while the Twins have a 5.18 mark. Minnesota’s FIP is lower, but their xERA is higher as well.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Pirates -114
Jared Jones and Quinn Mathews are the starters for this NL Central battle, where the Pirates have unfortunately been falling in the standings a bit, but so have the Cardinals, who have dropped seven of 10. They did win yesterday over the Orioles to salvage a game in that series. The Pirates were idle while coming back from the west coast.
Jones has a 4.76 ERA, but has deserved a better fate based on his 3.68 xERA and 4.16 FIP over 68 innings of work. A 69.8% LOB% has been a contributing factor and it’s a surprising number given how high his strikeout rate is. He did have a major ERA blow-up back on August 9 with eight runs allowed to the Mets over just three innings. Otherwise, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since June 27. If nothing else, Jones should keep his team in this one.
Mathews also has a big blow-up on his ledger, as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits to the Phillies last time out. His first two starts were pretty average, but that last start was as ugly as it gets for the southpaw. He had a 3.27 ERA with 120 K in 99 innings in the minors, but he also had 61 walks, so he was a bit erratic. Major League hitters usually capitalize on that, especially ahead in the count.
Ultimately, I’m playing this because of the bullpen difference between the two teams. As mentioned, the Pirates were off yesterday and lost 3-0 in San Diego on Wednesday. Their leverage arms are in really good shape. That is not the case for the Cardinals, as closer Riley O’Brien has pitched back-to-back days and threw 39 pitches on Sunday. George Soriano has worked back-to-back days. Justin Bruihl threw 41 pitches yesterday and Gordon Graceffo threw 38. The Cardinals really worked their pen hard to get that win.
With Mathews’ control issues, he’s not a guy I would expect to pitch deep into a game. I think that helps the Pirates in the late innings. I also prefer Jones to Mathews, so they could have a lead anyway, but if the two starters largely cancel out, I like Pittsburgh’s chances late.
