Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins (-130, 8)
The White Sox (25-64) just dropped two of three against the Guardians, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-4 as +185 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Marlins (30-57) just got swept by the Red Sox, losing 6-5 in extra innings yesterday as +135 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the White Sox hand the ball to Drew Thorpe (2-1, 4.43 ERA) and the Marlins counter with righty Bryan Hoeing (0-0, 1.83 ERA). This line opened at a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on Miami at a cheap coin-flip price at home, steaming the Marlins up from -110 to -130. The Marlins are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars, signaling a slight public lean but also respected sharp money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Miami has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team that is expected to win. The Marlins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. Miami has the superior offense, hitting .231 with 303 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .221 with 285 runs scored. Thorpe has a 5.02 ERA on the road compared to 3.00 at home. The White Sox are 9-35 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)
The Tigers (39-48) just lost two of three against the Twins, falling 12-3 yesterday as +150 road dogs. Conversely, the Reds (42-45) just swept the Yankees, winning 8-4 yesterday as +155 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Tigers start righty Reese Olson (2-8, 3.32 ERA) and the Reds tap fellow righty Carson Spiers (2-1, 3.13 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -115 home favorite and Detroit a -105 road dog. Sharps have laid the short chalk with the red-hot Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -115 to -125. The Reds are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, indicating one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Cincinnati has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Olson posted a 5.73 ERA in six June starts, allowing 21 earned runs in 33 innings pitched. Detroit is just 3-13 in Olson’s 16 starts this season. Spiers posted a 3.04 ERA in four June starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched. The Reds are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .226 with a 4.09 ERA. The Tigers are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .196 with a 5.66 ERA. Cincinnati is +21 in run differential. Detroit is -26.
9:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 8.5) at San Diego Padres
The Diamondbacks (43-44) just took two of three against the Dodgers, winning 9-3 yesterday as +100 road dogs. Similarly, the Padres (48-43) just took two of three agains the Rangers, winning 3-1 yesterday as +100 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Diamondbacks turn to righty Slade Cecconi (2-6, 5.81 ERA) and the Padres send out fellow righty Randy Vasquez (2-4, 4.88 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -110 home favorite and Arizona a +100 road dog. The public is backing the Padres at home, who have the better record and are laying cheap chalk. However, despite San Diego receiving 60% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the line move away from the Padres (-110 to +100) and toward the Diamondbacks (+100 to -110). Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Arizona, with the line moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Cecconi has pitched better on the road than at home, posting a 3.35 ERA as a visitor compared to 11.65 in the desert.
