Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to end the work week. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
2:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, 7.5) at Chicago Cubs
The Pirates (20-25) won Thursday night’s series opener 5-4, cashing as +105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Pirates send out righty Paul Skenes (0-0, 6.75 ERA) and the Cubs (25-20) counter with fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (0-3, 10.04 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds. Some shops even opened the Cubs as a slight favorite. The public isn’t sure which side to take as the moneyline bets are split down the middle 50/50. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen the Pirates creep up from -105 to -115. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the action is even. However, based upon the line move toward Pittsburgh, we can safely assume that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the Pirates. Road favorites are 134-90 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 70-48 (59%) with an 11% ROI. Pittsburgh also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Skenes, the rookie phenom who is making his second career start, faced the Cubs in his debut and went 4 innings giving up 3 runs and striking out 7 in a 10-9 Pirates win. Skenes’ strikeout prop for today is 6.5 with the under juiced to -140 (the over is +110). Hendricks have given up 4 earned runs or more in five of his six starts this season.
7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-135, 8)
The Mariners (24-20) just took two of three from the Royals, winning Wednesday’s series finale 4-2 as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Orioles (27-14) just dropped two of three against the Blue Jays but avoided the sweep with a 3-2 win in Wednesday’s series finale, cashing as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners hand the ball to righty Bryce Miller (3-3, 2.66 ERA) and the Orioles go with lefty Cole Irvin (4-1, 2.90 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -125 home favorite and Seattle a +115 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Orioles laying modest chalk at home, steaming Baltimore up from -125 to -135. The Orioles are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Baltimore has the edge at the plate, hitting 64 homers and scoring 203 runs compared to Seattle hitting 50 homers and only scoring 168 runs. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 471-268 (62%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. The Orioles have feasted on teams who missed the playoffs the previous season, going 61-25 (71%) with a 17% ROI since 2023. Baltimore also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
8:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros (-110, 8)
The Brewers (26-17) just took two of three against the Pirates, winning Wednesday’s series finale 10-2 as -150 home favorites. On the flip side, the Astros (19-25) are 7-1 over their last eight games and just swept the Athletics, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-1 as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Brewers tap righty Freddy Peralta (3-1, 3.63 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow righty Hunter Brown (0-4, 7.79 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 road favorite and Houston a +105 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Brewers, who have the far better won-loss record. However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Milwaukee plummet from -120 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Houston (+105 to -110), with pros backing the unpopular home team and driving this game down to a pick’em. The Astros are receiving 35% of moneyline bets but 47% of moneyline dollars, evidence of a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. While Brown’s overall numbers have been poor, he has pitched well in his two May starts, allowing a combined 3 earned runs over 9.1 innings pitched against the Tigers and Mariners. Respected money also seems to be leaning under, as the total has fallen from 8.5 to 8 at several shops. The Astros are 25-16-3 to the under this season, the 5th-best under team in MLB.
