Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-170, 7.5)
The Giants (15-17) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox but avoided a sweep with a 3-1 win in yesterday’s series finale, cashing as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Phillies (21-11) just took two of three against the Angels, winning Wednesday’s series finale 2-1 as -210 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Giants hand the ball to righty Jordan Hicks (2-0, 1.59 ERA) and the Phillies counter with fellow righty Aaron Nola (4-1, 3.20 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +130 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying chalk at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -145 to -170. The Phillies are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public. The Phillies have the better offense, hitting .255 with 40 homers and 149 runs scored vs the Giants hitting .238 with 29 homers and 121 runs scored. Philadelphia also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Phillies were off yesterday while the Giants played in Boston. Favorites who had a day off against teams on a back-to-back are 332-221 (60%) since 2018. The Phillies also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Philadelphia is 10-6 at home. San Francisco is 6-10 on the road. The Phillies are +27 in run differential. The Giants are -23.
7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians (-180, 7.5)
The Angels (11-20) just dropped two of three against the Phillies, losing Wednesday’s series finale 2-1 as +175 home dogs. Similarly, the Guardians (20-11) just lost two of three against the Astros, falling 8-2 in yesterday’s series finale as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Angels start righty Jose Soriano (0-4, 4.76 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (2-0, 3.45 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -170 home favorite and Los Angeles +155 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down on the Guardians, driving Cleveland up from -170 to -180. The Guardians are receiving 92% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, indicating overwhelming Pro and Joe support. Cleveland has the better bats (hitting .247 with 157 runs scored vs the Angels hitting .242 with 131 runs scored) and the far better bullpen (team ERA 2.74 vs 5.42, second worst in MLB). Favorites off a loss, like the Guardians here, are 124-80 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Guardians have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Wiseguys also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The under is receiving 45% of bets but 75% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for low 60s with cloudy skies and 5-7 MPH winds blowing in from right center at Progressive Field.
9:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-140, 7.5)
The Marlins (9-24) just swept the Rockies, taking yesterday’s series finale 5-4 in extra innings as -170 home favorites. Similarly, the Athletics (15-17) just swept the Pirates, winning Wednesday’s series finale 4-0 as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Miami turns to lefty Ryan Weathers (2-2, 4.55 ERA) and Oakland goes with fellow southpaw JP Sears (1-2, 4.64 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -130 home favorite and the Marlins a +115 road dog. Sharps have sided with the Athletics laying modest chalk at home, steaming Oakland up from -130 to -140. The Athletics are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split along with a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Oakland has the second best bullpen in baseball (ERA 2.45) while Miami has the 9th worst (4.46 ERA). The Athletics have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Interleague favorites off a win, like the A’s here, are 264-163 (62%) with a 3% ROI since the start of last season. Oakland also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the A’s were off yesterday while the Marlins played in Miami and now have to travel cross country. The Athletics are 7-3 over their last ten games. The Marlins are 3-7.
