Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 10-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 9)
The Giants (11-4) just took two of three against the Yankees, winning Sunday’s Interleague series finale 5-4 as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Phillies (9-6) just lost two of three against the Cardinals, falling 7-0 yesterday as -170 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants send out righty Landen Roupp (0-1, 3.60 ERA) and the Phillies go with fellow righty Taijuan Walker (1-0, 0.00 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -135 home favorite and San Francisco a +115 road dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the Phillies at home. However, despite receiving 62% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Philadelphia tumble from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on San Francisco, as the line has moved in their direction (+115 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Giants are taking in 38% of moneyline bets but 47% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.
San Francisco has the more explosive offense, hitting 18 homers with 75 runs scored compared to Philadelphia hitting 14 homers with only 60 runs scored. The Giants also have the better bullpen (ERA 1.82 vs 4.27).
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to greater variance and upset opportunities.
Sharps also seen to be expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has risen from 8.5 to 9. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. The Giants are 10-5 (67%) to the over this season, the third best over team in MLB.
7:05 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-140, 9)
The Royals (8-8) just dropped two of three against the Guardians but avoided the sweep with a 4-2 win in Sunday’s series finale, taking care of business as -140 road favorites. Similarly, the Yankees (8-7) just lost two of three against the Giants, falling 5-4 yesterday as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals hand the ball to righty Seth Lugo (1-1, 3.24 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow righty Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 7.71 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Kansas City a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Yankees laying modest chalk at home, steaming the Bronx Bombers up from -125 to -140. Some shops are even inching toward -150.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps are the betting public.
Home favorites are 103-53 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 38-17 (69%) with an 18% ROI. Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 39-23 (63%) with a 5% ROI. Monday home favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 5-2 this season and 41-17 (71%) with a 9% ROI since 2024.
The Yankees have the edge at the plate, hitting .259 with 28 homers and 95 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting only .219 with 8 homers and 52 runs scored.
New York is hitting .264 at home this season (11th) and .250 against righties (9th). Kansas City is hitting .209 on the road (21st) and .213 against righties (26th).
Sharps also leaned over, raising the total from 8.5 to 9. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 68% of bets and 86% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 86% of bets and over 95% of dollars.
The Yankees are 10-4-1 (71%) to the over this season, second best in MLB behind only the Cubs (12-5-1).
7:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Minnesota Twins (-120, 8)
The Mets (10-5) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning 8-0 yesterday as -145 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Twins (5-11) just dropped two of three against the Tigers but avoided the sweep with a 5-1 win yesterday as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mets tap righty Clay Holmes (1-1, 4.30 ERA) and the Twins trot out fellow righty Joe Ryan (1-1, 2.65 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a short -110 home favorite and New York a +100 road dog.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored based on their respective won-loss records and 72% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing the Mets.
However, despite this lopsided support in favor of New York we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Minnesota -110 to -120. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Twins, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
Home favorites are 103-53 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 37-17 (69%) with a 16% ROI. Interleague home favorites off a win are 30-15 (67%) with a 13% ROI.
Minnesota has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win the game.
The Twins also have fishy buy-low value as an unpopular home favorite with a losing record against a sell-high popular road dog with a winning record.
