An injury to a superstar has a waterfall effect in the sports betting world and it was on display on Monday when it was announced that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal would undergo elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies” in his prized left arm. The injury means that we won’t have our first three-peat Cy Young Award winner since Randy Johnson won four in a row from 1999-2002 with the Diamondbacks.
But, it’s not just the individual awards market where Skubal’s absence has already had a big impact. The Tigers remain favored to win the AL Central, but that role is lukewarm at best, heading into Monday’s action at +150 while the Guardians sat at +175. The World Series and AL Pennant odds didn’t take that much of a hit, since Skubal is expected to be back in 2-3 months, but a pitcher’s rehab and recovery is not guaranteed to be linear.
Along with 397.1 regular season innings over the last two seasons, Skubal also threw 39.2 high-stress innings in the postseason and had averaged more than six innings per start this year. To say it’s a huge loss is an understatement and to call Skubal merely an ace undersells all that he has done and accomplished.
Let’s look at the impact of Skubal’s injury on the odds, how it affects the Tigers, and whether or not now is the time to lock in some Detroit futures.
AL Cy Young Award Odds
Skubal was around +250 to achieve the three-peat, but he’s off the board now and won’t win the award. He was off to a strong start with a 2.70 ERA, 3.18 xERA, and a 2.16 FIP with over a strikeout per inning and his usual pristine walk rate.
But, as great as Skubal has been, Cam Schlittler and Max Fried had higher fWARs (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement Player) than he did at the time of his injury announcement and Dylan Cease was right behind him. As of May 4 when Skubal was scratched from his start and officially sidelined, Schlittler had a 1.51 ERA with a 2.41 xERA and a 1.54 FIP, while Fried had a 2.39 ERA with a 2.32 xERA and a 2.73 FIP. Maintaining those numbers pitching in the Bronx and in the AL East would be tough no matter what, but especially as the weather warms up. Also, Skubal gets to feast pretty regularly on a very offensively-challenged AL Central, so he would have likely strengthened his case as the season went along.
Schlittler dropped to +230, while Fried sat at +260 and Cease at +500 after the board was adjusted. Upstart right-hander Jose Soriano was the fourth choice at +550.
Neither Schlittler nor Fried are really worthy of a bet at this point, not that the price will get a whole lot better on either guy. Let the dust settle a bit now and see if any long shots get bet down with the AL Cy Young market now seemingly a little wider-open than usual.
AL Central Division Odds
In a vacuum, a Skubal injury is disastrous for the Tigers. You don’t replace Tarik Skubal. It’s impossible. But, in the context of the Tigers as a whole, it’s potentially catastrophic. Prized prospect Jackson Jobe is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Casey Mize is out with a strained groin. Reese Olson had season-ending shoulder surgery. And now there are a lot of hopes pinned on the shoulders of 43-year-old Justin Verlander, who has made just one start this season due to a bum hip. Top minor league option Sawyer-Gipson Long was just scratched from a start and Jake Miller hasn’t made a start yet this season due to injury. Even UConn product Andrew Sears is recovering from a fractured elbow.
Detroit is attempting to stretch Troy Melton out as a starter in the minors as he works his way back from an elbow injury. There are some pitchers floating around out there in free agency, but who knows if any of them are interested or upgrades over the in-house options.
The clearest benefactors here are the Guardians and Royals. To me, though, this opens the door for the Royals the widest of all. Cleveland has major issues with the offense and the bullpen. The Royals have had their share of issues with those two areas as well, but they’ve been a top-five offense in wOBA since the middle part of April and the bullpen seems to be stabilizing slowly, but surely.
At +380, even with a little bit of an early hole, I think the Royals are strongly worth consideration to win the AL Central. They were around +550 entering May, so the price has gone down a bit, but they strike me as a far better value than Cleveland.
Buy Low on the Tigers?
Right now? No. They have to weather a pretty big storm and, frankly, the price isn’t even at a “low” point, in my opinion. But, I do think that this is the best offense in the division. Kevin McGonigle keeps getting better and Max Clark is coming soon. Detroit has done a pretty good job of developing Major League-caliber pitching, though health has been a major question mark. We’ll see if they can keep doing that, but this is a team accustomed to the Melton/Brant Hurter/Tyler Holton Frankenstein as a fourth or fifth starter, so that’s nothing new.
There will probably come a buy point on Detroit while Skubal is hurt. Finding able bodies to start games will be very tough for a little while and the schedule is a little more daunting once you get away from the bad weather of April, as off days become fewer and farther between.
Right now, though, I think the Royals are the team to focus on and we’ll see if the Tigers can tread water long enough to be a good option later in the spring or early summer.
