Today we wrap up the month of August with a 12 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (-190, 9)
This brief one-game series is a makeup game from June 18th.
The Giants (56-81) just split a four-game series against the Diamondbacks, winning the series finale 7-2 as as +115 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Braves (82-55) just swept the Rockies, winning the series finale 3-2 in extra as heavy -235 home favorites.
In tonight’s matchup, the Giants were originally slated to start righty Logan Webb (8-8, 3.72). However, San Francisco elected to push Webb back a day and instead go with righty Anthony Molina (1-0, 2.89 ERA) while the Braves counter with fellow righty Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened Atlanta listed as low as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +125 road dog.
Once Molina replaced Webb, we saw a massive steam move hit the Braves, pushing Atlanta up from -145 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Atlanta is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of the home chalk.
Monday favorites priced -175 or higher, like the Braves here, have gone 28-10 (74%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Atlanta has the more productive offense, scoring 636 runs compared to 560 for San Francisco.
The Braves are 4-1 in Elder’s last five starts. He is 6-3 with a 3.49 ERA at home compared to 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA on the road.
Atlanta has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.39 (4th best in MLB) compared to 4.27 ERA (20th) for San Francisco.
The Braves are 48-23 (68%) at home, the best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Giants are 23-45 (34%) on the road, the worst record in MLB.
6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 8)
The Mets (61-76) just dropped two of three against the Astros, losing the series finale 6-3 as -125 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (82-54) just swept the Padres, winning the series finale 5-4 in extras as a -155 home favorite.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mets send out righty Robert Stock (0-3, 7.40 ERA) and the Rays tap lefty Ian Seymour (9-5, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -165 home favorite and New York a +145 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rays at home, driving Tampa Bay up from -165 to -175.
At Circa, the Rays are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from the wiseguys in the desert.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a sizable favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays are 55-34 (62%) with a 12% ROI against teams with losing records, the best mark in MLB.
When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, Tampa Bay has gone 42-23 (65%) with an 11% ROI, also the best mark in MLB.
The Rays have the better bats, hitting .260 with a .329 OBP and 616 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .236 with a .306 OBP and 562 runs scored.
Seymour is 6-1 with a 3.77 ERA in night games. Meanwhile, the Mets are only hitting .234 against lefties (24th in MLB).
The Rays are 46-23 (67%) at home, the best home record in MLB. On the other hand, the Mets are 29-37 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 8.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies (77-60) just swept the Angels, winning the series finale 5-2 as -165 road favorites. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (73-65) just split a four-game series against the Giants, dropping the series finale 7-2 as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies tap righty Aaron Nola (5-10, 5.03 ERA) and the Diamondbacks rebuttal with fellow righty Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.51 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a roughly -115 road favorite and Arizona a +100 home dog.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 70% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are hammering the Phillies at a cheap chalk price.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support the Phillies have remained largely stagnant at -115. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Snakes as a short home, dog, as the line has barely budged despite heavy Philadelphia support.
At DraftKings, Arizona is only receiving 30% of moneyline bets but a heavy 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Diamondbacks are taking in 57% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Snakes at home.
The Diamondbacks offer correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Arizona enjoys a one-day rest advantage, as the Diamondbacks were off yesterday while the Phillies played in Los Angeles and now travel to the desert.
The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in Pfaadt’s last 11 starts. He has posted a 2.45 ERA in five August starts, allowing only 9 earned runs in 33 innings pitched.
Arizona is also likely to be boosted by the return of Ketel Marte (.249, 21 homers, 67 RBIs), who is expected to be activated off the injured list for tonight’s game.
