Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 31, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Over the total is 17-3 (85%, +13.80 units) in Seattle-Boston h2h games at Fenway Park since 2019
– The ROI on this trend is 69%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: ATL is 22-6 (+12.15 units) as a larger home night favorite (-130 or higher) with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF)
Since 2018, if a team scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, their next game posts a winning record at 2,217-2,092 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.86 units (ROI: -6.2%).
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 200-158 for +3.07 units and an ROI of +0.9%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+108 vs PHI)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 58-51 for -9.41 units for an ROI of -8.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TEXAS (-200 vs ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 80-123 for -46.69 units and an ROI of -23%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA), NY METS (+159 at TB)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 134-200 start for -26.18 after losing about 35 units over the last eleven weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+131 vs SD), COLORADO (+120 vs BAL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 85-46 for -16.70 units, ROI -12.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF), TEXAS (-200 vs ATH)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 36-22 start for -14.73 units, and an ROI of -25.4%!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick’ em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 281-337 for -19.44 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 90-90, +14.75 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-101 at CHC), ARIZONA (+108 vs PHI), DETROIT (+110 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at HOU)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 234-156 for +49.73 units, an ROI of +12.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-109 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 74-97 for -23.18 units and a solid ROI of -13.6%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-116 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 142-165 for -1.53 units. However, it has lost -14.83 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+151 at BOS), ATHLETICS (+185 at TEX), COLORADO (+120 vs BAL), LA ANGELS (+111 vs NYY)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 528-422 for +44.59 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF), TAMPA BAY (-169 vs NYM), BALTIMORE (-130 at COL), PHILADELPHIA (-116 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -106 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 260-194 for +24.15 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-130 at COL), NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-116 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 814-1,055 but for +33.11 units and an ROI of 1.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+179 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 455-393 but for -98.31 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-162 vs SEA), HOUSTON (-127 vs CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 473-419 record for +47.51 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA), BALTIMORE (-130 at COL)
*WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO at ATL (+179 CURRENTLY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2217-2092 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.86 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,283-2,867 (44.3%) for -270.18 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+151 at BOS), DETROIT (+108 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at HOU)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 363-319 (53.2%) for +27.43 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-162 vs SEA)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 176-96 SU (+41.35 units, ROI: 15.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR WASHINGTON vs MIA (+102 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on an 81-154 skid (-39.45 units, ROI: -16.8%).
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+111 vs NYY)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 109-195 (-64.10 units, ROI: -21.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+111 vs NYY)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 336-345 run (+14.79 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+111 vs NYY), COLORADO (+121 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 275-177 in their last 452 tries (+47.29 units, ROI: 10.5%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 578-567 for +21.55 units, good for +1.9% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA +108 (+17 diff), LA ANGELS +111 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BALTIMORE -129 (+30 diff), MINNESOTA -118 (+22), SAN DIEGO -141 (+11), BOSTON -162 (+10), HOUSTON -127 (+10)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 118-92 for +14.55 units and an ROI of 6.9%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: DET-MIN UNDER 9 (-0.9)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (56-81) at (902) ATLANTA (82-55)
Trend: ATL is 22-6 (+12.15 units) as larger home night favorites (-130 or higher) with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF)
(903) SAN DIEGO (72-65) at (904) CINCINNATI (65-72)
Trend: Over the total is 14-4 (+9.45 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL opponents with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-CIN (o/u at 9)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 13-4 (+10.30 units) in his last 17 starts vs NL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+131 vs SD)
(905) MIAMI (69-68) at (906) WASHINGTON (65-74)
Trend: MIA is 45-28 (+9.32 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-109 at WSH)
(907) MILWAUKEE (85-52) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (77-60)
Trend: Over the total is 26-14 (+10.60 units) when CHC faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 9.5)
(909) PHILADELPHIA (77-60) at (910) ARIZONA (73-65)
Trend: PHI is 27-40 (-15.48 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at AZ)
(911) SEATTLE (64-73) at (912) BOSTON (74-63)
Trend: SEA is 25-44 (-21.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at BOS)
(915) ATHLETICS (53-84) at (916) TEXAS (67-70)
Trend: TEX is 18-8 (+4.47 units) in the last 26 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-200 vs ATH)
(917) CHICAGO-AL (72-64) at (918) HOUSTON (69-68)
Trend: Over the total is 51-26-1 (+22.40 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
(919) NEW YORK-AL (78-59) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-85)
Trend: Under the total is 45-25-1 (+17.50 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-LAA (o/u at 8)
(921) NEW YORK-NL (61-76) at (922) TAMPA BAY (82-54)
Trend: TB is 46-23 (+13.08 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-169 vs NYM)
(923) BALTIMORE (68-69) at (924) COLORADO (52-85)
Trend: BAL is 18-6 (+10.61 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against opponents with a 47% or lower win pct in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-130 at COL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Mon 8/31-Wed 9/2
Trend: Over the total is 17-3 (85%, +13.80 units) in the SEA-BOS games at Fenway Park since 2019
– The ROI on this trend is 69%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 7.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-193 vs SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): DETROIT (+108 at MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-169 vs NYM), NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-106 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 9.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 8-21 (27.6%) -13.69 units, ROI: -47.2%
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+108 vs PHI)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 21-19 (52.5%) -11.58 units, ROI: -29%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-119 at LAA)
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