Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-140, 9) at Detroit Tigers
The Royals (62-49) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 7-1 as -145 road favorites and then rolling again yesterday 9-2 as +100 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals hand the ball to newly acquired righty Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.81 ERA). Meanwhile, the Tigers (52-59) have yet to announce their starter. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -130 road favorite and Detroit a +115 home dog. Despite not knowing who the Tigers will start on the mound, wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Royals, steaming Kansas City up from -130 to -140. The Royals are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, signaling a heavy dose of both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 100-62 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Royals are 35-16 (69%) with a 15% ROI as a favorite this season, the second best chalk team in MLB. Kansas City has won five straight to improve to 10-4 since the All Star Break. The Royals have the better bats, hitting .254 with 528 runs scored compared to the Tigers hitting .229 with only 462 runs scored. Kansas City is 6-2 against Detroit this season. The Royals are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .290. The Tigers are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting just .167.
7:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-115, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians (67-42) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 10-3 as -110 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-4 as +100 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (65-46) turn to newly acquired righty Zach Eflin (6-7, 4.11 ERA) and the Guardians tap lefty Joey Cantillo (0-0, 8.10 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -130 road favorite and Cleveland a +120 home dog. The public expects the Orioles to get back on track with a win. However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Baltimore fall from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Guardians, as the line is moving in their favor (+115 to +100) despite receiving only 35% of bets. Cleveland has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Guardians are 35-15 (70%) with a 24% ROI at home, the best home team in MLB. Cleveland has a big edge in the bullpen, sporting an ERA of 2.51 (best in MLB) compared to 4.01 for Baltimore. The Guardians are 8-2 over their last ten games with an overall team ERA of 3.03. The Orioles are 5-5 over their last ten games with an overall ERA of 5.46.
9:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners (-115, 8.5)
The Mariners (58-53) took last night’s Interleague Series opener 10-2, easily cashing as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (65-44) go with righty Orion Kerkering (2-2, 2.21 ERA) and the Mariners rebuttal with fellow righty Bryce Miller (8-7, 3.46 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -125 home favorite and Philadelphia a +110 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline bet split, we’ve seen the line fall away from the Mariners (-125 to -115) and toward the Phillies (+110 to +100). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, we know based on the 10-cent adjustment that smart money is siding with the Phillies to bounce back with a win. Philadelphia is only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 63% of moneyline dollars, signaling a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp money bet discrepancy. The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .255 with 529 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .219 with 441 runs scored. Philadelphia is hitting .250 against righties, ranking 9th in MLB. Seattle is hitting .220 against righties, ranking 29th. This is also the ultimate buy-low spot in the Phillies as they have lost seven of their last eight games.
