Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-125, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
The Marlins (45-51) took yesterday’s Interleague series opener 8-7 in extra innings, coming through as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Royals (47-51) hand the ball to righty Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.74 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow righty Cal Quantrill (3-8, 5.62 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -120 road favorite and Miami a +100 home dog.
Sharps are quietly banking on the Royals to bounce back with a win, driving Kansas City up from -120 to -125. Some shops are even up to -130.
At DraftKings, the Royals are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Kansas City is taking in 69% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
The Royals have betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Quantrill has a 7.27 ERA in two July starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 8.2 innings pitched. He is 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA at home and 1-4 with a 6.06 ERA in day games.
Kansas City has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.70 (9th best in MLB), compared to 4.05 for Miami.
7:15 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 8.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks (48-50) cruised to a 7-3 win in yesterday’s series opener, cashing as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (51-47) send out righty Sonny Gray (9-3, 3.50 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Ryne Nelson (5-2, 3.68 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals to get back on track, steaming St. Louis up from a -110 road pick’em to a -125 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are taking in 57% of moneyline bets and a 65% of moneyline dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected smart money. At Circa, St. Louis is receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a hefty 92% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from the wiseguys in the desert.
St. Louis has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Cardinals are 15-4 in Gray’s 19 starts this season.
St. Louis has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.80 compared to 5.00 for the Diamondbacks (4th worst in MLB).
9:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-130, 8)
The Mariners (52-45) dominated last night’s series opener 6-1, taking care of business as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Astros (56-41) send out righty Lance McCullers Jr. (2-4, 6.48 ERA) and the Mariners tap fellow righty Logan Evans (3-3, 3.75 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +100 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the short chalk with the Mariners, steaming Seattle up from -120 to -130. Some shops are even creeping up to -135.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Seattle is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
The Mariners have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Evans is 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, McCullers Jr. is 2-4 with a 7.59 ERA in night games.
Seattle is 3-1 against Houston this season.
The Mariners have played better than the Astros as of late, going 7-3 in their last ten games and hitting .260 with a 3.57 team ERA compared to Houston going 4-6 and hitting .250 with a 4.50 team ERA.
