Today the weekend begins with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
4:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (-135, 9)
The Diamondbacks (55-49) won last night’s series opener 3-2, hanging on as -125 road favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to lefty Mitch Bratt (0-0, 5.06 ERA) and the Nationals (52-52) counter with fellow southpaw Foster Griffin (11-2, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +110 road dog.
Sharps have sided with the Nats to bounce back with a win, pushing Washington up from -130 to -135 and even -140 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Nats here, are 121-89 (60%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Washington is 28-23 (55%) with an 18% ROI off a loss this season, the second most profitable bounce back team in MLB. If they’re also facing a team who missed the playoffs the previous season, the Nats improve to 20-12 (63%) with a 31% ROI off a loss this season.
The Nats have the better bats, hitting .253 with 569 runs scored compared to the Snakes hitting .242 with only 469 runs scored.
Griffin has posted a 1.42 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. Washington is 16-4 in in his 20 starts this season. He is 9-0 with a 2.19 ERA in night games.
Meanwhile, Bratt is a rookie making his 4th career start.
4:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (-140, 8)
The Padres (51-53) took last night’s series opener 4-2, coming through as +105 road dogs.
In today’s rematch, the Padres send out righty Randy Vasquez (6-6, 4.72 ERA) and the Marlins (52-52) go with fellow righty Eury Perez (5-7, 3.53 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -130 home favorite and San Diego a +110 road dog.
Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Marlins at home, driving Miami up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, Miami is receiving 62% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating slight public but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Saturday home favorites receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor, like the Fish here, are 48-27 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season.
The Marlins are 14-7 (67%) with a 14% ROI when favored at home against teams with a below .500 record, the second best record in MLB. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, Miami is 26-15 (63%) with a 10% ROI this season, fourth best in MLB.
Miami offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Marlins have the better offense, hitting .251 with 459 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .229 with 430 runs scored.
Perez has posted a 0.95 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 19 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Vasquez has posted an 8.10 ERA in three July starts, giving up 6 earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched.
Miami is 31-21 at home. San Diego is 24-29 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox (-125, 8.5)
The Astros (51-54) won last night’s series opener 9-5, cashing as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Astros start righty Hunter Brown (1-1, 4.05 ERA) and the White Sox (54-48) tap fellow righty Sean Burke (7-4, 3.20 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the White Sox to bounce back with a win laying short chalk at home, pushing Chicago up from -120 to -125 or even -130 across the market.
At DraftKings, Chicago is receiving 61% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the White Sox are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in favor of the home team.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Southsiders here, are 121-89 (60%) with a 9% ROI this season.
When the line moves in their favor at home, the White Sox are 19-7 (73%) with a 42% ROI this season, the most profitable line move home team in MLB. Chicago is also 27-20 (57%) with a 23% ROI off a loss, the most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Chicago is 6-0 in Burke’s last six starts. He has posted a 0.92 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Brown has posted a 7.98 ERA in three July starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched.
The White Sox are 31-18 at home, the 2nd best home team in MLB. Houston is 25-27 on the road.
