MLB Best Bets Today July 25
Weather worries are non-existent as we look at a full slate of Saturday games. There is only one super-early start, with all of the others coming in the 4 p.m. ET hour or later. Once again, as we move another day closer to the Trade Deadline, teams continue to be on pins and needles wondering what will happen, but some are trying to make a big push to prove that they should be given some help and resources, while others are just waiting until they have to say goodbye to friends and teammates. It’s a tough time of year emotionally for a lot of guys.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 25:
Guardians vs. Rays Prediction
Pick: Rays -125
Nick Martinez is on the mound for the Rays and he throws a plus changeup and that’s probably all I really need to take the Rays in this one. I’ll dig deeper into the game, obviously, but the veteran right-hander has a 2.59 ERA with a 4.61 xERA and a 3.89 FIP, as his low K% of 13.7% is why his xERA is as high as it is. He’s only allowed a 32.7% Hard Hit% and a 7.1% Barrel%, so he’s done a tremendous job of limiting hard contact. Also, his BB% is just 4.4%, so he isn’t creating any problems for himself.
The Guardians employ platoons at the highest rate in baseball, meaning that they’ll stack left-handed batters against right-handed pitchers and vice versa. The problem with that approach today is that Martinez has held lefties to a .299 wOBA on the season. He’s been super effective against righties, too, and has a 3.07 ERA at Tropicana Field on the season.
Cleveland is pretty much the worst lineup in baseball on changeups year in and year out and that’s pretty true again this season. The Guardians are batting .185 against changeups, the worst in the league by 11 points per Statcast. Their .266 SLG is two points lower than the Twins and also ranks 30th. Their .215 wOBA is 15 points lower than the Twins and dead last. Martinez’s CH usage of 27.5% is the second-highest of his career.
When he faced Cleveland back in late April, he threw seven shutout innings with just three hits and a walk and only had 28.2% usage on the pitch, pretty similar to his season numbers. I’d expect a higher rate of CH tonight.
Tanner Bibee has a 3.86 ERA with a 4.50 xERA and a 4.68 FIP, as he’s allowed a 14.1% HR/FB% and his K% has dropped significantly from his previous seasons. He’s tried to morph into a pitch-to-contact guy, but that’s hard to do with a 35th percentile Hard Hit% and a 30th percentile Barrel%. He has just a 9th percentile Chase Rate. He’s just not a very good pitcher this season. His wOBA against of .302 is 24 points lower than where it should be based on his xwOBA. A lineup like the Rays could make it hurt.
Cleveland’s bullpen is in shambles right now outside of Cade Smith. Nearly every reliever gave up a run or more yesterday. This is a bad baseball team masquerading as a playoff contender.
Braves vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Braves -107
The Braves and Orioles are in a toss-up type of game here, as Bryce Elder and Brandon Young are the listed starters. Young has had the upper hand between the two, as the 6-foot-6 right-hander enters with a 3.25 ERA, but his 4.21 xERA, 3.85 FIP, and 4.52 xFIP signal some negative regression on the horizon. His 4.58 SIERA is also concerning moving forward. The rest-of-season sims have him anywhere between 4.38 and 4.91 with his ERA the rest of the way.
He draws a Braves bunch that ranks second in wOBA against RHP in the month of July. They’re slashing a strong .282/.358/.513 with a .375 wOBA and a 137 wRC+. Lefties own a .276/.350/.514 slash against him at home and the Braves should be able to run out seven lefties against him in this one.
The Orioles are just 23rd in wOBA against RHP this month, as a 13.1% BB% has done a ton of heavy lifting. They only have a .317 SLG in that split, which ranks 29th in baseball, better than only the Cardinals since July 1. Elder’s done a good job of limiting walks. His issue has been giving up a lot of hard contact, including 10 Barrels over his last four starts. But, the Orioles aren’t really a team hitting for a lot of power.
Both bullpens are in similar spots after last night’s extra-inning game. The O’s actually have the second-best bullpen ERA over the last 30 days, so we’ll see what happens in the late innings if this one is close, but I do like the Braves in this matchup.
