Today the weekend begins with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-155, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Marlins (17-26) took last night’s Interleague series opener 9-4, cashing as +115 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Rays (20-24) send out righty Drew Rasmussen (1-4, 3.38 ERA) and the Marlins go with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (2-5, 8.10 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 road favorite and Miami a +115 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Rays to bounce back with a win, steaming Tampa Bay up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rays are taking in over 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss are 170-104 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 98-60 (62%) with a 2% ROI. Interleague “sweet spot” favorites -135 to -160 are 35-19 (65%) with a 10% ROI.
Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.57 compared to 4.80 for the Marlins.
Tampa Bay is hitting .263 against righties (4th best) while Miami is only hitting .246 (17th).
Alcantara has a 7.59 ERA in two May starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched. The Marlins are 0-5 in his last five starts.
8:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres (-190, 8.5)
The Mariners (24-19) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-1, cashing as +150 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners trot out righty Emerson Hancock (1-2, 6.91 ERA) and the Padres (27-16) rebuttal with fellow righty Nick Pivetta (5-2, 3.05 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -165 home favorite and Seattle a +140 road dog.
Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the wood with the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -165 to -190. Some shops are even inching toward -200.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in 93% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Padres in a bounce back spot.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 149-67 (69%) with an 11% ROI this season. Home favorites in game two of a series after losing game one are 32-18 (64%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 159-78 (67%) with a 7% ROI.
The Padres are hitting .270 against righties this season (3rd in MLB). The Mariners are hitting .241 (22nd).
Hancock has a 7.36 ERA in two May starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 11 innings pitched.
Pivetta has a 1.42 ERA at home compared to 5.21 on the road.
9:05 p.m. ET: Athletics at San Francisco Giants (-155, 8)
The Giants (26-19) cruised to a 9-1 victory in last night’s Interleague series opener, taking care of business as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (22-23) start righty Luis Severino (1-4, 4.70 ERA) and the Giants go with fellow righty Landen Roupp (2-3, 4.95 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 home favorite and the Athletics a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Giants laying short home chalk, steaming San Francisco up from -125 to -155.
At Circa, the Giants are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 88% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the respected wagers out in Vegas playing the home team.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 106-54 (66%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 76-38 (67%) with a 6% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 80-48 (63%) with a 3% ROI.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.66 (1st in MLB) compared to 5.88 for the Athletics (3rd worst).
Severino has a 10.80 ERA in two May starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Roupp has a 3.72 ERA at home compared to 5.34 on the road.
