Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 8)
The Orioles (22-29) won last night’s series opener 7-4, coming through as -130 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Tigers (20-32) send out lefty Framber Valdez (2-3, 4.58 ERA) and the Orioles go with righty Brandon Young (3-1, 4.25 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have jumped on the Orioles at a coin-flip price at home, pushing Baltimore up from -110 to -120, with some shops touching -125.
At DraftKings, Baltimore is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Orioles are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Orioles, especially the pros in Vegas.
The Orioles have betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Valdez has posted a 7.98 ERA in three May starts (all losses), allowing 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Young has posted a 4.20 ERA in three may starts (all wins), giving up 7 earned runs in 15 innings pitched.
The Orioles are 13-12 at home. The Tigers are 7-20 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
4:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants (-115, 9)
The White Sox (26-24) took last night’s Interleague series opener 9-4, taking care of business as -120 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the White Sox start lefty Bryan Hudson (2-1, 1.57 ERA) and the Giants (20-31) counter with righty Adrian Houser (2-4, 5.25 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 home favorite and Chicago a +105 road dog.
Sharps have sided with the White Sox as a short dog, dropping the line away from San Francisco (-125 to -115) and toward Chicago (+105 to -105).
At DraftKings, the White Sox are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and a hefty 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 92% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog.
The White Sox have correlative betting system value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Chicago has the better offense, posting a .323 OBP, .401 slugging percentage and 227 runs scored compared to San Francisco posting a .290 OBP, .375 slugging percentage and 177 runs scored.
Houser has a 7.31 ERA at home compared to 4.22 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-125, 8)
The Twins (24-27) won last night’s series opener 8-6, cashing as +125 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Twins hand the ball to righty Taj Bradley (4-1, 2.87 ERA) and the Red Sox (22-28) turn to lefty Jovani Moran (0-1, 2.81 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -115 home favorite and Minnesota a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Red Sox to bounce back with a win, pushing Boston up from -115 to -125, with some shops inching up to -130.
At Circa, the Red Sox are taking in 45% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert.
Boston has betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Red Sox have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.13 (4th best in MLB) compared to 4.86 for the Twins (5th worst in MLB).
