MLB Best Bets Today May 23
Sixteen games are on the MLB schedule for Saturday, but it seems unlikely that we will get all of those games. Guardians vs. Phillies was an epic pitcher’s duel last night, but the duel today will be against Mother Nature with a postponement highly likely. Tigers vs. Orioles has the chance to get banged as well, which probably wouldn’t be the worst thing for the reeling Motowners. But, even if we lose one or both of those games, there are still plenty to consider for MLB best bets today.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 23:
Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction – Game 2
Pick: Reds 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105)
Rain wiped out my favorite play of yesterday, as the Cardinals and Reds were unable to start their series along the Kentucky border. The play was to fade St. Louis starter Kyle Leahy and we still get that chance today, but with Chase Petty on the bump instead of Chris Paddack.
Here’s what I wrote yesterday about Leahy:
Leahy has a 3.94 ERA in 45.2 innings of work after converting from relieving to starting, but he has a 6.17 xERA and a 4.83 FIP. Leahy has a low K%, high BB%, and has allowed a 48.6% Hard Hit% with a 10.8% Barrel%. His best attribute is being 6-foot-5 with elite Extension that helps his fastball play up, but his xBA ranks in the bottom 3% of the league, his xSLG ranks in the bottom 9%, his xwOBA ranks in the bottom 7%, his Hard Hit% ranks in the bottom 6%, and his xERA in the bottom 7%. He’s simply not a good pitcher, but has fallen on the right side of luck – which should run out soon.
Obviously the rainout changes none of that, as he still has all of those concerning stats and metrics to go along with that very lofty xERA. It’s going to be a little bit warmer and a little more humid tonight than most of the games that we’ve seen in Cincy this season, so that also could impact Leahy, as this is a good hitter’s park when it does warm up.
Petty’s MLB returns have been awful, so as much as I’d like to just take the Reds on the moneyline like I did yesterday with Paddack, I’ll fade Leahy in a different way today.
Athletics vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Padres -102
J.T. Ginn heads back to the hill after a stellar performance that finished in devastating fashion last time out. He took a no-hitter into the ninth inning and struck out 10 Angels before giving up a single and a two-run walk-off homer, as the A’s mustered just one run of support. The strong eight innings on the heels of two starts of one-run ball has left Ginn with a 2.98 ERA.
He does have a 3.63 xERA and a 4.01 FIP, so regression signs are lurking. While he can continue to carry a low BABIP because he limits a lot of hard contact, I’m not sure .239 is in the cards, nor do I believe an 80.2% LOB% is sustainable. He did strike out 10 last time out and eight two starts prior to that, but he still only has 44 K in 51.1 innings of work.
In his quest for a no-no, Ginn threw over 100 pitches in an MLB game for the first time. He’s made three starts in 11 days and thrown 105, 95, and 96 pitches. Those are his three highest totals of the season and three of the five highest in his career over 30 starts, as he threw 98 pitches last September in one and 96 pitches in April 2025 in another. Plus, he had never completed more than six innings up until May 7, where he’s now gone eight innings twice in three starts. That’s a lot of up-downs and I could see a fatigue-induced dud soon.
Injuries pushed the Padres to sign Lucas Giolito, who went five innings with three runs allowed in his last start, but he only gave up one hit. He did walk three and only struck out three. His Stuff+ numbers were not great for that first start, but it was just his first start. He allowed 11 runs in 17 innings in the minors, but did go six innings with one run in his final tune-up.
This is really more about fading Ginn anyway and the Padres bullpen is in excellent shape from a usage standpoint, including three days off for super-closer Mason Miller.
Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Red Sox -126
Jovani Moran will be the opener for Brayan Bello here, as the Twins welcome Taj Bradley back to the rotation from injury. Bradley only faced nine batters in his lone rehab appearance and I can’t imagine that he’ll be asked to do a whole lot here coming back pectoral soreness. It’ll probably be more of a Johnny Wholestaff game for Minnesota here. They do have a 2.11 bullpen ERA over the last 14 days, but there are a lot of smoke and mirrors with a 4.73 xFIP and a high walk rate. They have not allowed a home run in that span, but as we saw yesterday with Connor Prielipp and his control issues, Fenway Park is intimidating.
Moran has a 2.81 ERA with a 3.15 xERA and a 4.62 FIP. He has allowed four homers and walked 14 batters in just 25.2 innings of work, hence the high FIP, but he hasn’t walked anybody in four straight appearances. He has given up runs in both of his starts as the opener, but hopefully he can navigate the first inning here and help out Bello.
Bello needs all the help he can get, as he has a 7.16 ERA with a 6.68 xERA and a 6.05 FIP over 44 innings. What is interesting, though, is that Bello has made seven starts and two bulk relief appearances. In the two bulk efforts, he’s allowed two runs on eight hits over 13.1 innings with a 12/2 K/BB ratio. There may be no rhyme or reason to it, and the Red Sox gave him a start last time out and he got bombed by Atlanta to the tune of seven runs over five innings.
Bradley has faced a lot of bad offenses this season to help his numbers out and pitch around a lot of hard contact. The Rays hit four homers off of him on April 24 and scored six runs in probably the hardest test he’s had to this point. Fenway Park is another hard test. The Twins used four relievers yesterday and two others in the bullpen are rarely-used arms in Kendry Rojas and Simeon Woods Richardson, so I’d be a bit skeptical of the relief corps here.
