Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, June 13 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: La Rascasse (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. La Rascasse
2. Percy’s Bar
3. Sneaky Good
LA RASCASSE scratched from an allowance race in favor of this stakes race – and other than PERCY’S BAR, there’s no one here obviously to fear. And I dunno – “vibes” around Percy don’t feel that great. Did she run TOO well winning the Ashland, not just off a long break, but after interrupted winter training at KEE? Guess one can forgive her Oaks run – we’ll see. La Rascasse impressed me in her race, turning back a serious challenge from filly who finished far in front of third-place horse. LR looked like a route horse there, looks like one working, and could get a perfect pressing trip outside Knickleandime, whom I think will stop. SNEAKY GOOD scratched from Leslie’s Lady last weekend. I have questions, at the price, about her quality and suitablility to two-turn racing.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Weaponized
2. Mirage
3. Miracle Mark
Trainer G Garcia entered 30-1 shot Just Like Max here for what reason? To make six and make the race go for his very live second runner, WEAPONIZED. Second off layoff, cut back to a one-turn mile – just needs a little pae help up front. MIRAGE out of starter-allowance competition but still in for a higher tag than connections paid three back. Wins if he gets back to race two back. Blinkers off last time, right back on here. Would’ve been more tempted for top slot had he not drawn the rail. 1-19 MIRACLE MARK will continue running to the level of his competition.
Second Race
1. Problem Solved
2. Cricket Neck
3. Tims
PROBLEM SOLVED? Nothing but questions! Mostly turf form, unproven on dirt, new barn – I’m keying on two things – the blinkers off move and the lively Ellis works as this barn switches from grass routes to a dirt sprint. That and the fact I’m just looking to beat the shorter prices here, which also leads to CRICKET NECK, shown nothing in three starts, but only the debut on dirt, and that not for a tag and over a muddy strip. In other words, baseline form unknown at a big price. TIMS up in class off the claim and has run “fast enough” to get into the picture.
Third Race
1. Valentine Eve
2. For the Win
3. Countthetrue
None of the firsters workouts really caught my eye and did think VALENTINE EVE had shown a little something into her debut. She didn’t show much in the actual race, but, obviously, a vast number of horses take a meaningful forward step merely by getting a race behind them. No work video from FOR THE WIN, so we’re back to the dark ages of “fast drills!” and “barn wins regularly with firsters!” COUNTTHETRUE has logged plenty of work, could be live – none of the video I saw caught my eye enough to live with the rail draw at what the morning line thinks will be a pretty short number.
Fourth Race
1. Insightful Miss
2. Sassy and Bold
3. Talkin in Cursive
INSIGHTFUL MISS ran just about as well as she ever did last out, but last out was about six weeks ago – the ample recovery time plus a potentially ideal draw for the trip she needs earn her the call in a tough-to-figure heat. SASSY AND BOLD had a five-win 2025, now a 6yo, and one wonders if she can get back to the sustained level of last season. Barn spots her all over the place to find the right races – this might be one. Ran into a winner last out far above par for the class level, and no one like Margo in this field. Wanted to feel like TALKIN IN CURSIVE has a bounce-back race in her, but then she’s only one start into racing for this new barn, and I just wonder where her baseline sits right now.
Fifth Race
1. Pagode
2. Render Judgment
3. Chillax
PAGODE unraced since November, but why would one care about that? First start for the Cox barn, and is any outfit better at preparing layoff horses for dirt routes? Lightly raced, stays the trips, and improvement shown at end of 2025 only going to continue at start of 2026 season. RENDER JUDGMENT on the other hand is totally exposed – he can win, but he’s really short on the line and you absolutely know what you’re getting here. CHILLAX was bad enough in his last three that I’m really starting to doubt he can rebound – used to be a lot faster, and not like he should be washed up as a 4yo with 11 starts.
Sixth Race
1. Smidgeon
2. Ai Magic
3. House Boat Party
Thought I saw some real sparks/flashes in workout video for firster SMIDGEON. Just purchased a couple months ago at breeze-up sale – usually a good sign when a barn with horsemen this good decides they can just go straight on with a 2yo sale purchase. AI MAGIC debuts for a barn not known for winning with firsters, but liked what I saw from his work video just about as well as anything here. HOUSE BOAT PARTY, second Flightline to make the races, didn’t blow me away on work video, but seems like everything the barn sends these days runs.
Seventh Race
1. Smiling Ellie
2. Austere
3. She’s Lookin Lucky
Yeah, it’s only a little more than 100 yards, but the cut back from 1 1/16 miles to one mile is key for SMILING ELLIE. Pretty snappy move last time before handled by subsequent G4 winner Sweet Treasure. That was a peak performance but bet she can deliver another. AUSTERE early in her career looked to me like she’d turn into something more than she’s become. Capable, but generally flat finishes, no wins since November 2024. Does SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY strictly need turf right now? Because I sure expected a lot more of her on dirt last time.
Eighth Race
1. Zambezi
2. Lunar Module
3. Ripped
ZAMBEZI, who finished third, and the runner-up in the May 2 race gave futile Oaklawn chase to Forged Steel, who came back to win the Grade 2 Gold Cup by 9 1/2 lengths. Well-spaced schedule this spring – he ought to maintain the form, and the form ought to suffice to win, though his propensity for not finishing the job is unappealing in a short price. LUNAR MODULE has the style of a horse that could benefit moving from sprints to this 7 1/2 furlongs around one turn – but I’m not totally convinced he will, something I could also say about RIPPED – neither one of these will beat Z if he shows up.
Tenth Race
1. Burnham Square
2. Parchment Party
3. Timeout
Whatcha want me to say? I suppose any horse can be headed for an unexpected fall, but I just don’t see that with BURNHAM SQUARE, and going 11 furlongs around three turns, the jockey has plenty of time to iron out any wrinkles in the trip. I mean, he’s superior enough to these that giving up ground to stay in the clear would be totally acceptable. BS could win if, unexpectedly, this is rained onto dirt, but his campaign’s all turf, and I wonder if connections would even want him to have that experience. Sans the favorite, PARCHMENT PARTY would be easily the most likely winner in a main-track contest. His stable-mate TIMEOUT also looks more dirt than turf – except for his mildly promising grass debut. Throw out the second turf try, see the way he ran 1 1/2 miles on dirt, and you might come up with the impression he suits his race well enough – except for, you know, the standout odds-on fave.
Eleventh Race
1. Ile de La Cite
2. Kaykay
3. Redhawk Riddler
ILE DE LA CITE has two work videos up, and I liked both of them. Like the way she goes, she seems to have speed, and I’d guess she’s ready for debut success. KAYKAY also has some solid-looking breezes, though I prefer Ile de La Cite’s – and Kay would need to draw in from pretty deep on the AE list. REDHAWK RIDDLER turf to dirt? It could happen, but not entirely sold.
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