Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-145, 8.5)
The Rays (15-11) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-2 as -145 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-1 as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Twins (12-15) send out righty Simeon Woods Richardson (0-3, 5.96 ERA) and the Rays open with righty Griffin Jax (1-2, 8.00 ERA) and then turn to fellow righty Jesse Scholtens (1-1, 2.93 ERA) in a bulk role.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 home favorite and Minnesota a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Rays to sweep the series, driving Tampa Bay up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
We’ve also seen pro money back Tampa Bay on the run-line (-1.5 at +135), as the Rays are receiving 58% of spread bets and 90% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Sunday home favorites off a win facing a team who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Rays here, are 82-37 (69%) with an 11% ROI since 2025. Non-division home favorites off a win priced -150 or less with line movement in their favor are 124-83 (60%) with a 6% ROI since 2025.
The Twins are 1-4 in Woods Richardson’s five starts this season. He has posted a 6.53 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched. He is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA on the road overall this season.
Tampa Bay is 7-4 at home this season. Minnesota is 5-9 on the road.
1:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds (-110, 9)
The Reds (18-9) have won the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, taking the opener 9-8 as -105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 9-2 as a -100 home pick’em.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers (14-14) tap righty Keider Montrero (1-2, 3.68 ERA) and the Reds start fellow righty Rhett Lowder (3-1, 3.10 ERA).
This line opened at a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Reds to earn the sweep, as Cincinnati has ticked up from -105 to -110, with some shops touching -115. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the side of the home team.
At DraftKings, Cincinnati is receiving 61% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Reds indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in their favor.
Cincinnati is 4-1 in Lowder’s five starts this season. He has posted a 3.00 ERA in his last four starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 24 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Montero has a 6.00 ERA on the road this season.
Cincinnati is 8-6 at home this season. Detroit is 4-12 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
2:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-135, 9.5) at Houston Astros
The Yankees (18-9) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 12-4 as -155 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-3 as -155 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees turn to righty Luis Gil (1-1, 4.11 ERA) and the Astros (10-18) counter with fellow righty Spencer Arrighetti (2-0, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite and Houston a +110 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and going back to the well with the Bronx Bombers, pushing New York up from -130 to -135.
At Circa, New York is taking in 89% of moneyline bets and a lopsided 99% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the pros in Vegas.
Pro money has also come down on the Yankees run-line (-1.5 at +115), as New York is receiving 72% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Yankees have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
New York is 10-4 on the road this season. Houston is 7-8 at home.
The Yankee also have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.00 compared to 6.19 for the Astros (worst in MLB).
