Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 13-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-140, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox
The Astros (61-55) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-4 as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 5-4 as -105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Astros send out righty Hunter Brown (9-7, 3.98 ERA) and the Red Sox (61-54) go with lefty James Paxton (9-3, 4.42 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -130 road favorite and Boston a +120 home dog. The public is leaning on the Red Sox the avoid the sweep as an enticing plus money dog. However, despite Boston receiving 55% of moneyline bets we’ve seen this line move further toward Houston -130 to -140. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Astros, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the contrarian side. Non-division road favorites off a win are 137-97 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Astros are 26-14 (65%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite since June 1st, the 5th best chalk team in MLB over that time span. Houston is 8-3 in Brown’s last 11 starts. He has given up one earned run or less in three of his last four starts. The Astros are hitting .261 against lefties this season, third best in MLB against southpaws. Houston has a team ERA of 3.29 over their last ten games compared to 5.36 for Boston. Rafael Devers is getting the day off and is not in the starting lineup for the Red Sox.
2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (-115, 8)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Twins (65-51) took the first two games, sweeping Friday’s doubleheader 4-2 as -165 home favorites and winning the nightcap 6-3 as -105 home dogs. Then the Guardians (68-49) bounced back with a 2-1 win yesterday, cashing as +100 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians start righty Tanner Bibee (9-4, 3.48 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with fellow righty David Festa (2-2, 5.55 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 road favorite and Minnesota a +105 home dog. The public is all over the Guardians to earn a win and split the series as a short road favorite. However, despite 68% of moneyline bets backing Cleveland we’ve seen this line completely flip away from the Guardians (-115 to +105) and toward the Twins (+105 to -115). This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Minnesota, with pros backing the home team and driving the line bigly in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 379-259 (59%) with a 2% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 79-44 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Minnesota is 54-30 (64%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite, the second best chalk team in MLB. The Twins are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .254 with a 3.68 ERA. The Guardians are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .233 with a 5.16 ERA.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Seattle Mariners (-135, 7.5)
The Mariners (62-56) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-0 as -135 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-0 as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Mets (61-56) hand the ball to righty Luis Severino (7-5, 4.06 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Luis Castillo (9-11, 3.48 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a +115 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the modest chalk with Seattle to complete the sweep, steaming the Mariners up from -125 to -135. Seattle is receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 79-44 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 169-93 (65%) with a 9% ROI since 2010. Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Seattle also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the superior team favored to win. Severino has a 4.65 ERA on the road compared to 3.54 at home. Castillo has a 2.95 ERA at home compared to 4.14 on the road.
