Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-155, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The White Sox (58-52) stole the opener 6-1, coming through as +120 road dogs. Then the Rays (65-45) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, cashing as -170 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the White Sox hand the ball to lefty Anthony Kay (7-5, 4.25 ERA) and the Rays counter with righty Griffin Jax (6-8, 3.74 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -145 home favorite and Chicago a +125 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rays to earn another victory and take the series, driving Tampa Bay up from -145 to -155, with some shops touching -160.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Jax has posted a 3.40 ERA at home compared to 4.06 on the road. Meanwhile, Kay has posted a 5.56 ERA on the road compared to 3.24 at home.
Tampa Bay is hitting .248 against lefties (10th) while Chicago is hitting .239 (19th) against righties.
The Rays are 41-17 (71%) at home and 30-11 (73%) as a home favorite, both of which are tops in MLB.
1:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians (-170, 8)
The Diamondbacks (59-52) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 4-1 as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 12-8 as +155 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks tap righty Merrill Kelly (8-8, 4.86 ERA) and the Guardians (56-56) turn to fellow righty Gavin Williams (10-6, 3.71 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -145 home favorite and Arizona a +125 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Guardians to earn a victory and avoid the sweep, steaming Cleveland up from -145 to -170.
At Circa, the Guardians are only receiving 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 78% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contarian split in their favor from the desert pros.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Williams has posted a 3.09 ERA at home and 2.83 ERA in day games compared to a 4.34 ERA on the road and 4.38 ERA in night games.
The Guardians have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.91 compared to 4.20 for the Diamondbacks.
3:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies (-130, 11.5)
The Rockies (44-67) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 3-1 as a -110 home pick’em and then winning again yesterday 12-6 as -130 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals (46-66) send out righty Seth Lugo (4-6, 4.22 ERA) and the Rockies turn to lefty Kyle Freeland (2-10, 7.34 ERA).
This line opened with Colorado listed as a -115 home favorite and Kansas City a -105 road dog.
The public is leaning toward the Royals earning a victory and avoiding the sweep.
However, despite 53% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Kansas City we’ve seen the line move further toward Colorado -115 to -130. This signals sharp action on the Rockies as a chalk favorite, as the line has moved in their favor despite the majority of bets taking the Royals.
At Circa, the Rockies are receiving 33% of moneyline bets but over 90% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy indicating sharp action from the wiseguys in the desert.
Colorado offers betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rockies have the better bats, hitting .254 with 530 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .246 with 466 runs scored.
Colorado is hitting .271 at home (2nd best in MLB) compared to Kansas City hitting .231 on the road (24th).
The Royals are 20-39 (34%) on the road, the 3rd worst road team in MLB.
