Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-145, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Mets (51-67) won the opener 6-4, coming through as +120 road dogs. Then the Pirates (58-61) bounced back with a 9-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -115 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mets hand the ball to lefty Sean Manaea (3-5, 4.33 ERA) and the Pirates turn to righty Jared Jones (2-3, 4.02 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -130 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Pirates to earn a win and take the series, steaming Pittsburgh up from -130 to -145.
At Circa, the Pirates are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are below .500 and both missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win has gone 46-24 (66%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Sunday home favorites priced -150 or less, like the Pirates here, are 80-48 (62%) with an 11% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 58-25 (70%) with an 18% ROI this season.
The Pirates have the better bats, hitting .257 with 601 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .234 with 488 runs scored.
Pittsburgh is hitting .245 against lefties, 10th best in MLB.
The Pirates are 30-29 at home. The Mets are 26-33 on the road.
2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-125, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Guardians (58-60) took the opener 8-2, cashing as -145 road favorites. Then the White Sox (60-56) clawed back with a 6-3 victory yesterday, coming through as +115 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians send out lefty Joey Cantillo (8-7, 3.87 ERA) and the White Sox counter with righty Davis Martin (9-6, 4.13 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians to earn a win and take the series, steaming Cleveland up from a -110 road pick’em to a -125 road favorite, with some shops touching as high as -130.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 47% of moneyline bets but a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 38% of moneyline bets and 52% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road team.
Sunday road favorites receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor, like the Guardians here, are 34-21 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Martin has struggled on the mound as of late, allowing 25 earned runs in 29 innings pitched over his last six starts (7.76 ERA).
The White Sox are hitting .233 against lefties this season, ranking 24th in MLB.
4:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-125, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Giants (49-68) won the opener 5-2, cashing as +130 home dogs. Then the Tigers (57-60) bounced back with an 8-0 win yesterday, cruising as -115 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Tigers tap righty Troy Melton (7-1, 1.58 ERA) and the Giants rebuttal with fellow righty Logan Webb (7-7, 3.74 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -115 road favorite and San Francisco a -105 home dog.
Sharps have sided with the Tigers laying short chalk, pushing Detroit up from -115 to -125, with some shops touching as high as -130.
At Circa, Detroit is taking in 88% of moneyline bets and a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Tigers here, are 86-52 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Sunday road favorites facing a below .500 team have gone 33-19 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Detroit offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Tigers have the edge offensively, posting a .321 OBP with 536 runs scored compared to the Giants posting a .307 OBP with 484 runs scored.
Detroit is 10-2 in Melton’s 12 starts this season. He has posted a 0.75 ERA in his last six starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 36.1 innings pitched. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA on the road.
The Tigers are hitting .284 since the All-Star Break (1st in MLB), while the Giants are hitting .222 (26th).
Detroit has the better bullpen, posting a 3.79 ERA (8th) compared to 4.33 (22nd) for San Francisco.
