Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
1:35 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 10) at Washington Nationals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Diamondbacks (55-50) won the opener 3-2, taking care of business as -125 road favorites. Then the Nationals (53-52) bounced back with a 5-3 win yesterday, coming through as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to lefty Kohl Drake (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and the Nationals turn to righty Miles Mikolas (3-7, 5.60 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -125 road favorite and Washington a +105 home dog.
The public is leaning toward Arizona at a cheap chalk price. However, despite receiving 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Diamondbacks fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Nationals, as the line has moved in their direction (+105 to -105) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Washington is receiving 45% of moneyline bets and 52% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 58% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
Home dogs off a win who failed to make the playoffs the previous season and are receiving line movement in their favor, like the Nats here, are 29-25 (54%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Washington offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (10), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
The Nats have the better offense, hitting .253 with 574 runs scored compared to the Diamondbacks hitting .242 with 472 runs scored.
Washington is hitting .269 against lefties, 2nd best in MLB.
1:35 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130, 9)
The Cubs (59-45) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-2 in extras as a -110 road pick’em and then dominating 11-0 yesterday as +105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs send out righty Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.38 ERA) and the Pirates (53-52) turn to fellow righty Braxton Aschcraft (9-4, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -120 home favorite and Chicago a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Pirates to avoid the sweep, pushing Pittsburgh up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Pirates are taking in 54% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Sunday home favorites -140 or less, like the Pirates here, are 59-35 (63%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Favorites receiving line movement in their direction who are looking to avoid a sweep are 36-24 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Pirates are 30-21 (59%) with a 13% ROI off a loss this season, the 4th most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Aschcraft’s last 11 starts. He is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA at home and 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Taillon has posted a 6.21 ERA on the road compared to 4.66 at home.
1:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-145, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Red Sox (53-50) won the opener 6-4, cashing as -130 home favorites. Then the Blue Jays (48-57) posted a 6-0 victory yesterday, coming through as a -105 road dog.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays tap righty Kevin Gausman (4-9, 4.51 ERA) and the Red Sox go with lefty Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.15 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -130 home favorite and Toronto a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Red Sox to earn a win at Fenway and take the series, steaming Boston up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in their favor.
Sunday home favorites priced -150 or less, like the Red Sox here, are 70-43 (62%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Boston offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Toronto is 0-7 in Gausman’s last seven starts. He has posted a 6.75 ERA in three July starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched.
The Red Sox have the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.07 (2nd in MLB) compared to 3.86 for the Blue Jays (10th).
The Blue Jays are hitting just .216 against lefties this season, dead last in MLB.
