Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:35 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 9) at Washington Nationals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Cardinals (46-42) won the opener 7-6 in extra innings, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. Then the Nationals (42-47) bounced back with a 14-6 win yesterday, cashing as -135 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cardinals start righty Kyle Gibson (6-3, 3.88 ERA) and the Nationals go with lefty DJ Herz (1-2, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 road favorite and Washington a +110 home dog. The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with St. Louis. However, despite receiving 59% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Cardinals dip from -130 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Nationals, as the line is moving in their favor (+110 to -105) despite being the unpopular bet. The Nationals are receiving 41% of moneyline bets but 48% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Washington has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Gibson has given up 8 earned runs over 9 innings pitched in his last two starts. Herz has a 3.15 ERA at home compared to 9.00 on the road. The Cardinals are only hitting .222 against lefties this season, ranking 29th in MLB.
1:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins (-140, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The White Sox (26-65) stole the opener 3-2, cashing as +120 road dogs. Then the Marlins (31-58) clawed back with a 4-3 win yesterday, cashing as +130 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the White Sox start righty Jonathan Cannon (1-2, 4.62 ERA) and the Marlins tap fellow righty Edward Cabrera (1-2, 7.17 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -125 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog. Pros have pounced on the Marlins laying short chalk at home, driving Miami up from -125 to -140. The Marlins are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars, indicating a slight public lean but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split as well as a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Miami has the better offense, hitting .231 with 309 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .222 with 291 runs scored. The Marlins have value as an Interleague favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored benefiting and more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The White Sox are 10-36 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
2:20 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-145, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Astros (46-43) took the opener 13-12, cashing as +130 road dogs. Then the Twins (50-39) bounced back with a 9-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Astros hand the ball to righty Spencer Arrighetti (4-7, 6.13 ERA) and the Twins counter with fellow righty Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.52 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +110 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Twins, steaming Minnesota up from -120 to -145. The Twins are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating Pro and Joe support in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. Minnesota has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Arrighetti is 1-5 with a 7.12 ERA on the road this season. The Twins are 6-2 in Woods Richardson’s last eight starts. Minnesota is 26-18 at home. Houston is 22-24 on the road. The Twins are hitting .316 with a 4.19 team ERA over their last ten games. The Astros are hitting .279 with a 4.55 team ERA over their last ten games.
