The MLB All Star Break continues tonight with the Midsummer Classic, as the National League hosts the American League at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia (8 p.m. ET on FOX). Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both the side and total using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
8 p.m. ET: American League at National League (-135, 8)
In tonight’s 96th All Star Game, the American League hands the ball to righty Dylan Cease (6-4, 2.56 ERA) and the National League starts lefty Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.62 ERA).
This line opened with the National League listed as a -135 home favorite and the American League a +115 road dog.
We haven’t seen much movement on the side, as the National League has remained static at -135 or dipped slightly down to -130, with the American League continuing to sit at +115 or slightly down to a +110.
At DraftKings, the National League is receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the National League is taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in support of the home chalk.
At BetMGM, the National League is taking in 58% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars, another sharp discrepancy in their favor.
We’ve also seen a heavy dose of action on the National League run-line (-1.5 at +150), as the Senior Circuit is taking in 79% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Since 2010, the American League has gone 10-5 against the National League. However, the National League has gone 2-1 in the last three All Star Games, winning 7-6 last year on a tie-breaker.
The National League has held the edge in Interleague play this season, going 237-196 (55%) with a 5% ROI against the American League.
While we haven’t seen much movement in terms of the side, the total is a different story.
We’ve seen a steady dose of sharp “over” action from open to current, pushing the total up from 7.5 to 8 or even 8.5 at some shops across the market.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 69% of bets and 86% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 77% of bets and 88% of dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
BetMGM is showing 56% of bets and 60% of dollars on the over, another sharp split validating a higher scoring game.
The weather could play a role in this one, as the forecast calls for high 80s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. The heat, humidity and wind offer ideal hitting conditions, especially in a ballpark known for offense.
Since 2005, when the wind is blowing out at Citizens Bank Ballpark the over has gone 162-104 (61%) with an 18% ROI. If the wind is blowing out and the temperature is also a hot and steamy 85 degrees or more, the over improves to 23-5 (82%) with a 57% ROI.
The offense should also be boosted by the fact that several stud pitchers will miss the game due to injury or rest, including Paul Skenes, Jacob Misiorowksi, Max Meyer, Chase Burns, Ranger Suarez and Braxton Aschcraft.
The under has gone 14-6 (70%) since 2005, although last year’s total sailed over with 13 combined runs scored.
