MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea owns a 4.42 ERA and a 4.33 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings. While he benefits from facing a Guardians team that ranks last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game, the Mets traded several of their trusted bullpen arms on Monday. Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has command issues, posting a respectable 3.88 ERA but issuing 4.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Mets vs. Guardians Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn is making his first start in more than two weeks. This season, he owns a 3.46 ERA with a 4.32 fielding independent and four walks per nine innings. On the road, he has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Reds starter Brady Singer has a 4.35 ERA and a 5.17 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings, but he has turned a corner by allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his past 11 starts.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -152
7:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
The Marlins are expected to use Ryan Gusto in some capacity. He owns a 5.31 ERA this season and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 11th in the league with a 3.86 ERA. The Braves will start Grant Holmes, who may be due for regression on his 3.88 ERA, as he owns a 5.10 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and four walks allowed per nine innings. However, he is supported by the National League’s top bullpen with a 3.42 ERA, and Atlanta’s lineup ranks fifth in home scoring at more than five runs per game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -177
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Tarik Skubal makes his highly anticipated Dodgers debut after posting a 2.79 ERA and a 2.60 fielding independent with the Tigers this season, along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.3. Cubs starter Javier Assad owns a 3.75 ERA and a 4.82 fielding independent while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings and recording only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with 5.7 runs per game.
8:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage owns a 3.73 ERA with 4.4 walks per nine innings but has been at his best away from home, posting a 3.28 road ERA. Astros starter Hayden Wesneski has made just seven starts over his two seasons with Houston, posting a 4.54 ERA and a 4.59 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +110
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -104
8:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes has been outstanding since reaching the majors, posting a 3.33 ERA and a 2.36 fielding independent without allowing a home run in five appearances, though the sample size is only 24 1/3 innings. Freddy Peralta gets a change of scenery after posting a 4.94 ERA with the Mets this season. Over his last seven starts, he allowed 33 runs, 27 of them earned, across 30 1/3 innings, but he recorded an ERA of 3.86 or lower in each of the previous five seasons, and his 4.45 fielding independent points toward improvement.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -156
9:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez may be due for some regression despite his 2.45 ERA, as he owns a 4.09 fielding independent with 3.2 walks and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The Padres have listed their starter as “to be announced,” but the expectation is a combination of Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez, and JP Sears, all of whom own ERAs above 4.00 and have struggled this season. San Diego’s lineup ranks 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -144
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
The Tigers have listed their starting pitcher as “to be announced.” If Troy Melton gets the start, he has been outstanding with a 1.75 ERA. Even if he does not start, Detroit’s bullpen ranks fifth in ERA since June 1 at 3.27. The Tigers face a Mariners lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with just over four runs per game. Seattle starter Emerson Hancock owns a 3.26 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Tigers vs. Mariners Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 6.8
