The MLB Trade Deadline featured a flurry of action at the end and a whole lot of smaller, but effective trades early in the day. What will be interesting to see is if any of these deals matter for 2027, but some of the contenders got better, some got worse, some didn’t really do much of anything, and some did a little bit of both.
The major blockbuster deal came through on Saturday when Tarik Skubal got traded to the Dodgers. That trade merited its own deep dive and write-up based on the odds movement. While Monday’s transactions didn’t do a ton to alter the futures landscape, there were some noteworthy acquisitions that could be worth looking into as a reason to make a futures bet.
All odds from DraftKings as of 10 p.m. ET on 8/3.
Chicago Cubs to win the World Series (15-1)
In my opinion, the Cubs had a really good Deadline Day. They picked up some pitching help, which was sorely needed due to the litany of injuries that they had early in the year. It is possible that the Cubs can run down the Brewers in the NL Central, though unlikely, given that Milwaukee made some moves to get stronger. However, the Cubs can now piggyback arms and piecemeal some pretty good combinations together in a best-of-three, best-of-five, or best-of-seven series to go with what was already a strong offense.
The biggest name in the mix for the North Sides is definitely Kevin Gausman, but Clay Holmes, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Braxton Garrett are all very good additions. Garrett has been dominant in Triple-A for the Marlins, but hasn’t been able to crack the big-league rotation for one reason or another. While Garrett’s MLB returns have been hit or miss, he has a 2.90 ERA with a 3.38 xERA in Triple-A with more than a strikeout per inning. The Cubs can use Garrett as a multi-inning bridge, setup man, matchup lefty, or just a guy to swallow some mop-up innings.
Gausman has been hurt by a 67.4% LOB%, as his 4.38 ERA isn’t indicative of how well he has thrown the ball. Most of his peripherals and ratios look the same as his other seasons, but he’s run into some sequencing and batted ball misfortune. As of Monday night, the Blue Jays ranked 14th in Outs Above Average at +4. The Cubs were first at +55. Gausman has pretty neutral batted ball splits in terms of liners, grounders, and fly balls. Chicago was +25 in OAA on the infield, while the Blue Jays sat at +7. In the outfield, the Cubs were +29 and the Jays -3. It’s a huge upgrade for Gausman and the other pitchers involved, including Holmes. Not to mention, losing Jameson Taillon is addition by subtraction.
Zeferjahn has struck out 33.5% of opposing batters, but has also walked 14.3% of them. He doesn’t generate a lot of chase, but his high rate of in-zone Whiffs is tremendously valuable. As a pitching staff, the Angels have the highest BB% in the league at 11.1%. The Cubs have the seventh-lowest at 8.0%. I would assume they make some sequencing changes or some other alterations to cut Zeferjahn’s walk rate down.
The Cubs lead all of baseball in fWAR and rank fourth in wOBA, so a top-five offense and the best defensive team in the league now has a stronger pitching staff. To me, as good as the Brewers are, and as impressive as the Braves and Phillies have been, the Cubs are the only NL team positioned well enough to beat the Dodgers and would be favored over the AL in the Fall Classic.
Cleveland Guardians to win AL Central (+190)
The Guardians absolutely had needs and answered some of them with a couple of late deals. The addition of Foster Griffin gives them another MLB-caliber starting pitcher, something that they didn’t really have beyond the guys on the current roster, especially with Khal Stephen, the acquisition in last year’s Shane Bieber trade with the Blue Jays, out with Tommy John surgery.
Griffin slotting into the rotation should bump Slade Cecconi into the bullpen. With Shawn Armstrong hurt and Hunter Gaddis struggling, Cecconi’s stuff should play well there. While his numbers aren’t great for the season, he’s limited the opposition to a .226/.266/.350 slash with a .271 wOBA and has a 37/9 K/BB ratio the first time through the order. Compare that to a .316/.367/.421 slash the second time through and an abominable .363/.438/.775 the third time through with eight of his 16 homers allowed. Cecconi with an extra tick of velo and less exposure to the opposing lineup could make him a very valuable relief weapon.
But, easily the biggest piece for the Guardians was Nathaniel Lowe. Collectively, Guardians first basemen have slashed .199/.309/.380. That’s last in batting average, 24th in OBP, and 26th in SLG. Lowe is batting .266/.341/.480 this season in what has been a nice bounce back campaign from a down 2025. He’s been an above average hitter by wRC+ in every other season except that one. Lowe is also running a 9.6% Barrel%, his best mark since 2022 when he had a 9.9% Barrel% and is running a Hard Hit% of 40% or higher for the eighth straight season.
Lowe is the definition of a platoon player, as he only has 25 PA against LHP this season. He’s batting .083/.120/.083 in that split, but he’s hitting .286/.363/.522 against RHP. His 137 wRC+ in that split would lead the Guardians. He’s a huge addition, especially as a guy who is now No. 2 on the roster in bat speed.
No. 1 in bat speed is Jo Adell. He’s a very limited player, but he hit 37 HR last season and he’s a guy who makes violent contact when he makes it. He’s only batting .239, but has a .258 xBA and has gotten a little bit unlucky. He’s a bad fielder and can’t really hit righties, but he fits right into Cleveland’s platoon-based offensive style. These are exactly the types of moves that the Guardians like to make and they sent down David Fry and Kyle Manzardo, who have both been objectively terrible at the plate, to create room on the roster for Lowe and Adell. These are two substantial upgrades based on how they’ll be deployed.
With Lowe’s .286/.363/.522 against RHP and Adell’s .303/.378/.571 slash against LHP, the lineup is more dangerous, especially if manager Stephen Vogt has the opportunity to deploy them as pinch-hitters late in games as well.
Pair that with the fact that I don’t really love what the White Sox and I think the Guardians’ price is worth it. Chicago added Luis Castillo, Huascar Brazoban, and Brenton Doyle. Doyle’s having a down year defensively and I do think his defensive worth is mitigated by being in Chicago as opposed to Denver with the super-spacious outfield at Coors. His range is his best attribute and that matters less now, plus he’s not much of a hitter.
Castillo might work out, but he’s posted road ERAs of 3.62, 4.25, 4.71, and 5.07 dating back to 2023, his first full season with the Mariners. The 36-year-old Brazoban is having a fine season, but I think the White Sox should have focused more on some right-handed balance to their lineup and I’m worried that they didn’t really do enough to keep a young staff with no pennant race experience in tip-top shape.
Giants Worst Record (28-1)
The Giants were clear-cut sellers at the Trade Deadline, and with good reason. While they were unable to find somebody to take on the Raffy Devers contract, they did move Tyler Mahle, Robbie Ray, Heliot Ramos, Luis Arraez, and Erik Miller. Entering Deadline Day, the Giants had six players with a wRC+ of 100 or higher – Bryce Eldridge, Arraez, Devers, Jung Hoo Lee, Casey Schmitt, Ramos.
Two were traded. Schmitt tore his meniscus and his season is more than likely finished. Ray had 122.2 innings of 3.08 work, while Mahle’s xERA was more than a run lower than his 5.13 ERA, so it’s not a big surprise that a team was willing to take a chance on him. Miller had a 2.76 ERA out of the pen in 38 appearances.
While the Diamondbacks didn’t do much, the Padres did and the Dodgers are MLB’s Monstars. The Rockies were a seller to a degree, but they seem to at least be moving in the right direction. The Giants still have six games left with the Dodgers (all in the last week and a half of the season), four with the Diamondbacks, and three with the Padres, plus Houston, Boston, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, all teams in the hunt.
The Angels did shed some players and are the rightful favorites. The Rockies are the rightful second favorites. But, this is a big price on a Giants team that is very bad and arguably lost more than any other team in the race to the bottom.
