Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with just 10 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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12:35 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 7) at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Pirates (13-12) won the first two games, taking the opener 4-2 as -150 home favorites and winning the second game 2-1 as -105 home dogs. Then the Brewers (15-8) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, Milwaukee starts righty Freddy Peralta (2-0, 1.90 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (2-2, 4.80 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Pirates a +115 home dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with Milwaukee, driving the Brew Crew up from -125 to -130. Milwaukee is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-sided support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Milwaukee has the better bats (hitting .262 vs .237) and the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.31 vs 3.71). Road favorites are 78-45 (63%) this season with a 12% ROI. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 92-72 (56%) with a 4% ROI. The Brewers also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
1:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 7.5) at Cincinnati Reds
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Phillies (15-10) won the opener 7-0, cashing as -115 road favorites. Then the Reds (14-10) took the next two games, winning 8-1 as +110 home dogs and winning again yesterday 7-4 as -150 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Philadelphia starts righty Zack Wheeler (1-3, 2.30 ERA) and Cincinnati goes with fellow righty Nick Martinez (0-0, 4.76 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -150 road favorite and the Reds +135 home dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -150 to -175. Philadelphia is receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, indicating a heavy mix of both sharp and public support. The Phillies have the better bats (hitting .246 vs .225) and better pitching (team ERA 3.50 vs 3.89). Favorites off a loss, like the Phillies here, are 97-57 (63%) this season with a 7% ROI. Road favorites are 78-45 (63%) with a 12% ROI. Bryce Harper returns to the Phillies lineup today after missing the first three game of the series while on the paternity list. Pros are also leaning under, as the total has dipped from 8.5 to 8, with some shops even inching down to 7.5. The under is receiving 48% of bets but 75% of moneyline, a sharp contrarian bet split.
2:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals (-115, 7.5)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Blue Jays (13-12) took the opener 5-3, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. Then the Royals (15-10) bounced back with a pair of victories, winning 3-2 as +105 home dogs and winning again yesterday 3-2 as +115 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, Toronto hands the ball to righty Jose Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) and Kansas City counters with lefty Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32 ERA). This line opened with the Royals listed as a -120 home favorite and the Blue Jays a +105 road dog. Sharps have taken a bite on Toronto at a cheap dog price, dropping the Blue Jays from +105 to -105. Essentially, wiseguy Jays money is moving this game down toward a pick’em. Toronto is receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. The Jays are a perfect 5-0 in Berrios’ five starts. He has only allowed three earned runs in 31.2 innings pitched. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The Royals are 16-8-1 to the under this season (2nd best in MLB) and the Blue Jays are 15-10 to the under (6th best).
