Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 11 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12:15 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (-130, 8.5)
The Braves (22-9) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-2 as -125 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-3 as +120 home dogs.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Tigers (15-16) start lefty Framber Valdez (2-1, 3.41 ERA) and the Braves go with righty Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.95 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 home favorite and Detroit a -105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Braves to complete the sweep at a cheap chalk price, steaming Atlanta up from -115 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Braves are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp Pro and Joe split in their favor.
Pros have also gotten down on the Braves run-line (-1.5 at +165), as Atlanta is receiving 70% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Non-division home favorites off a win priced -150 or less receiving line movement in their favor, like the Braves here, are 126-84 (60%) with a 7% ROI since 2025.
Atlanta has the better bats, hitting .273 with 175 runs scored compared to Detroit hitting .248 with 137 runs scored.
Valdez has a 5.06 ERA on the road compared to 0.69 at home. On the other hand, Elder is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA at home.
The Braves are hitting .286 at home (1st in MLB) and .272 against lefties (4th).
The Braves are 12-5 at home. The Tigers are 5-14 on the road.
Atlanta is 19-7 (73%) with a 24% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB.
12:35 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 7)
This is the first game of a day-night doubleheader.
The Phillies (10-19) won the series opener 7-0, taking care of business as -160 home favorites. Then last night’s rematch was rained out.
In this early afternoon twin bill, the Giants send out righty Logan Webb (2-3, 4.86 ERA) and the Phillies turn to lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2-2, 2.94 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -140 home favorite and San Francisco a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Phillies at home, driving Philadelphia up from -140 to -145, with several other shops across the market reaching -150.
At DraftKings, Philadelphia is receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Sharp money has also backed the Phillies on the run-line (-1.5 at +155), as Philadelphia is taking in 57% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite has gone 120-69 (64%) with a 3.5% ROI since 2025. If they also made the postseason the previous year, like Philadelphia, they improve to 66-29 (70%) with a 10% ROI since 2025.
The Phillies have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Sanchez is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA at home this season.
