Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 54-24 SU for +16.25 units (ROI: 20.8%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-184 vs SF)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 22-7 (+15.29 units) in his last 29 home day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-102 vs STL)
Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 415-468 but for +91.08 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+119 at MIL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 75-116 for -45.70 units and an ROI of -23.9%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+164 at HOU)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 130-186 start for -16.89 after losing about 27 units over the last nine-and-a-half weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-102 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 265-316 for -16.91 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 74-69, +17.28 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs ATL), WASHINGTON (+147 at TEX)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 217-139 for +52.27 units, an ROI of +14.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-106 at CIN), NY YANKEES (-119 at BAL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 132-148 for +3.42 units. However, it has lost -9.88 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-105 at CWS), ATHLETICS (+126 at KC), BALTIMORE (+111 vs NYY)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 473-494 but for +34.75 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-105 at CWS), ATHLETICS (+126 at KC), BALTIMORE (+111 vs NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 802-1,041 but for +33.55 units and an ROI of 1.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+150 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+171 at CLE), ATHLETICS (+126 at KC), SEATTLE (+119 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+147 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+164 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 415-468 but for +91.08 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+119 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 172-70 for +15.30 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON vs LAA (-177 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 54-24 SU for +16.25 units (ROI: 20.8%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-184 vs SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2201-2078 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.48 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-136 vs ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2263-2838 (44.4%) for -260.38 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+171 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+164 at HOU)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 673-566 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.30 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-161 vs WSH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 537-521 for +26.26 units, good for +2.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -102 (+22 diff), BALTIMORE +111 (+15), TORONTO +149 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOUSTON -177 (+27 diff), KANSAS CITY -136 (+16), MILWAUKEE -128 (+14), TEXAS -158 (+13)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 19-11-1 for +6.13 units and an ROI of 20.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATH-KC OVER 8 (+1.2)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ST LOUIS (65-63) at (952) CINCINNATI (61-66)
Trend: Under the total is 15-8-1 (+6.45 units) with starter Michael McGreevy since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CIN (o/u at 9)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 22-7 (+15.29 units) in his last 29 home day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-101 vs STL)
(953) TORONTO (62-66) at (954) TAMPA BAY (76-50)
Trend: Hasn’t happened in a couple of years, but Shane Bieber’s teams are a ridiculous 19-3 (+16.53 units) in his last 22 against opponents with a > 60% win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+153 at TB)
(955) ATHLETICS (49-78) at (956) KANSAS CITY (54-74)
Trend: KC is 23-34 (-15.49 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs ATH)
(959) LOS ANGELES-AL (50-77) at (960) HOUSTON (64-63)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 0-4 when he starts vs Houston in his career (he has a 5.48 ERA in these four appearances)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+164 at HOU)
(961) SAN FRANCISCO (52-74) at (962) CLEVELAND (61-66)
Trend: SF is 23-41 (-14.95 units) in road games this season
Trend: SF is 2-16 in the last 18 starts by Landen Roupp
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+171 at CLE)
(963) ATLANTA (74-53) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (66-60)
Trend: Over the total is 47-35-1 (+8.50 units) when CWS is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CWS (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: CWS is 8-3 (+5.14 units) with starter Anthony Kay at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs ATL)
(965) SEATTLE (60-67) at (966) MILWAUKEE (78-49)
Trend: SEA is 24-41 (-17.46 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at MIL)
(967) WASHINGTON (61-67) at (968) TEXAS (62-65)
Trend: WSH is 42-23 (+12.38 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at TEX)
Trend: TEX is 17-8 (+3.47 units) in the last 25 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-158 vs WSH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-184 vs SF), ATLANTA (-105 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-128 vs SEA), TEXAS (-158 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CIN (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 24)
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