Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Marlins (62-59) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-0 as +100 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-2 as -115 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Pirates (58-64) tap righty Braxton Ashcraft (11-5, 4.08 ERA) and the Marlins turn to fellow righty Tyler Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a +110 home dog.
Sharps have scooped up the plus money with the Marlins to finish off the sweep, dropping the line away from Pittsburgh (-130 to -125) and toward Miami (+110 to +105).
At Circa, Miami is only receiving 40% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian discrepancy in their favor from the Vegas professionals.
Phillips is 2-1 with a 1.68 ERA at home compared to 1-4 with a 5.90 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Ashcraft has allowed 4 earned runs or more in four of his last five starts.
Miami also has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.80 (9th in MLB) compared to 4.21 for Pittsburgh (19th).
The Marlins are 38-24 at home (5th best in MLB) while the Pirates are 28-34 on the road.
4:05 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (-145, 8.5)
The Cubs (71-50) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-6 as -175 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 12-6 as -155 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Cubs hand the ball to newly acquired righty Kevin Gausman (6-10, 4.29 ERA) and the Nationals (59-63) counter with fellow righty Cade Cavalli (9-5, 3.57 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 road favorite and Washington a +115 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the modest chalk with the Cubs to complete the sweep, pushing Chicago up from -135 to -145, with some shops touching as high as -150.
At Circa, Chicago is taking in 60% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Chicago offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Gausman shined in his Cubs debut, allowing only 2 earned runs over 7 innings in a 6-4 win over the Royals. He has posted a 2.13 ERA over his last two starts (both wins), giving up only 3 runs in 12.2 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Cavalli has posted a 3.75 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 5 earned runs in 12 innings pitched.
Chicago has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.89 (11th) compared to 4.91 for Washington (27th).
The Cubs are 36-26 on the road (5th best in MLB) while the Nationals are just 26-36 (2nd worst).
