MLB Best Bets Today August 13
Nine games are on the NFL betting board for Thursday, as most of them are early starts. Only four of today’s games are at 4:05 p.m. ET or later, including the Netflix-exclusive Field of Dreams game between the Phillies and Twins. The Logan Gilbert vs. Max Fried matchup is the highlight of the early slate, while Jacob deGrom, Kevin Gausman, and Roki Sasaki are all part of the later games. Sasaki gets the nod in what could be a NLCS preview with Brewers vs. Dodgers.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 13:
Twins vs. Phillies Prediction
Pick: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-108)
The Field of Dreams game in Dyersville, IA has rain chances, as has seemingly been the case in the Great Plains for weeks now. MLB will do everything possible tonight to try and have a result and work through the raindrops, although the two teams do have a scheduled off day tomorrow and may try to give it a go then, though tomorrow’s forecast is only marginally better.
So, we have the possibility of a delay, which could make a lot of starting pitcher Under props profitable. But, this is also a matchup I’m a bit concerned about for Bradley, who is pitching on the traditional four days rest. While he’s actually significantly worse on five days rest, he does have his lowest K/BB ratio in his 11 starts on four days rest.
He has a 26.6% K% with a 9.9% BB% and all those deep counts will definitely run up a pitch count. The Phillies are sixth in the second half against RHP with a 9.5% BB%. While they haven’t had much success on batted balls, they’ve done a pretty good job of drawing free passes. The Phillies are also sixth in MLB for the season in percentage of foul balls as strikes, so that could also extend some counts for Bradley.
Bradley’s 11.3% BB% against LHB stands out a bit to me here as well, given that lefties Bryce Harper (16.2%) and Kyle Schwarber (15.3%) are easily and clearly the team’s leaders in drawing free passes. Fellow lefty Bryson Stott is third at 9.9%. With all of those factors in play, I think it’s reasonable to have the hopes for a shorter start from Bradley.
Brewers vs. Dodgers Prediction
Pick: Under 0.5 Runs 1st Inning (NRFI) -115
Shane Drohan is the Brewers hurler who draws the assignment opposite Sasaki in this matchup, but we have two guys who have been well-prepared for their starts.
Drohan has allowed four first-inning runs over 13 starts, allowing just a .174/.269/.239 slash with a .508 OPS. That is the lowest OPS he has allowed in any of the first six innings. On the other side, Sasaki has allowed a total of six runs in the first inning of his 20 starts, with five of them earned. Like Drohan, he’s come out of the gates ready, allowing just a .186/.260/.329 slash with a .588 OPS. That is the lowest of any inning for him, which is typically not what you see because the top of the order is guaranteed to bat in the first.
Drohan has not allowed any first-inning HR, while Sasaki has allowed two, though he has really turned a corner recently, allowing a total of just eight earned runs over his last five starts.
