Today is the MLB Trade Deadline and bettors only have a 3 game slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (-185, 9.5)
The Braves (45-62) just dropped two of three against the Royals, losing yesterday’s series finale 1-0 in extra innings as a +100 road dog. Similarly, the Reds (57-52) just lost two of three against the Dodgers but avoided the sweep, winning 5-2 yesterday as +140 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Braves send out newly acquired righty Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.91 ERA) and the Reds counter with lefty Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.09 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -160 home favorite and Atlanta a +135 road dog.
Sharps aren’t afraid of the relatively expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -160 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating one-way Pro and Joe action in favor of the home chalk.
Non-division home favorites off a win receiving line movement in their direction are 183-99 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 18-6 (75%) with an 8% ROI. Home favorites with big steam 20-cents or more in their favor in Game 1 of a new series are 62-25 (71%) with a 9% ROI.
The Reds are 13-5 in Abbott’s 18 starts this season. He has given up 1 earned run or less in 14 of his 18 starts overall. He is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA at home. Atlanta is hitting .230 against lefties this season, ranking 21st in MLB.
Meanwhile, Carrasco has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 5 of his 8 starts this season. He last pitched on May 4th against Tampa Bay.
Cincinnati has played better than Atlanta over their last ten games, going 5-5 with a .245 batting average and 3.62 team ERA compared to the Braves going 2-8 with a .224 batting average and 6.52 team ERA.
The Reds are 32-24 at home. The Braves are 19-36 on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-175, 7.5)
The Rangers (57-52) just lost two of three against the Angels but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-3 as -125 road favorites. Similarly, the Mariners (57-52) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, falling 5-4 yesterday as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers tap righty Kumar Rocker (4-4, 5.73 ERA) and the Mariners go with fellow righty George Kirby (5-5, 4.50 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -150 home favorite and Texas a +130 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mariners, steaming Seattle up from -150 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are taking in 66% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of public and wiseguy support in their favor.
Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 18-6 (75%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites with big steam 20-cents or more in their favor in Game 1 of a new series are 62-25 (71%) with a 9% ROI.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mariners have the more explosive bats, hitting .245 with 152 homers and 492 runs scored compared to the Rangers hitting .233 with only 116 homers and 452 runs scored.
Kirby has a 3.86 ERA in four July starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched. Seattle is 7-2 in his last 9 starts.
Meanwhile, Rocker has a 4.95 ERA in four July starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. He is 1-4 with a 9.91 ERA on the road.
The Mariners are 28-24 at home. The Rangers are 23-32 on the road.
Seattle is 7-2 against Texas this season.
