Happy 4th of July! Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of Independence Day games.
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2:35 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers (-115, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Rangers (39-47) took the opener 7-0, cashing as -105 home dogs. Then the Padres (47-43) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, cashing as +135 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres send out righty Michael King (6-5, 3.61 ERA) and the Rangers turn to righty Max Scherzer (1-1, 1.74 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -130 home favorite and San Diego a +115 road dog. The public is laying the modest chalk with the Rangers. However, despite receiving 62% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Rangers fall from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Padres, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side (+115 to +100). San Diego is receiving 38% of moneyline bets but 53% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Padres have the better offense, hitting .262 with 100 homers and 418 runs scored compared to the Rangers hitting .239 with 88 homers and 368 runs scored. King had a 2.67 ERA in six June starts, allowing only 10 earned runs in 33.2 innings pitched. He has a 2.84 ERA on the road compared to 4.64 at home. The Padres are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .273 with a 4.15 ERA. The Rangers are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .254 with a 4.33 ERA.
4:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-145, 7) at Seattle Mariners
The Orioles (55-31) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-0 as a -110 road favorite and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as +135 road dogs. In today’s series finale, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.28 ERA) and the Mariners (47-41) go with fellow righty Bryce Miller (6-7, 3.88 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -135 road favorite and Seattle a +120 road dog. Sharps like the Orioles to earn the series sweep, steaming Baltimore up from -135 to -145. The Orioles are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Baltimore has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Orioles also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. Baltimore has a big edge at the plate, hitting .254 with 140 homers and 444 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .216 with 94 homers and 333 runs scored. Burnes posted a 2.12 ERA in five June starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 34 innings pitched (Baltimore went 4-1 in those 5 starts). Miller posted a 4.68 ERA six June starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 32.2 innings pitched.
8:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Rays (43-43) took the opener 5-1, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Royals (48-40) clawed back with a 4-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Rays start righty Zach Eflin (4-5, 3.92 ERA) and the Royals counter with fellow righty Alec Marsh (6-5, 4.19 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -130 road favorite and Kansas City a +115 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the Royals getting a plus-money payout, driving Kansas City down from +115 to +105. The Royals are receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Kansas City has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Royals have the better bats, hitting .244 with a 87 homers and 397 runs scored. The Rays are hitting .235 with 78 homers and 344 runs scored. Eflin has a 5.01 ERA on the road compared to 2.43 at home. Marsh has a 3.30 ERA at home compared to 5.21 on the road.
