Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only 9-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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3:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Diamondbacks (39-41) won the opener 5-4, cashing as +110 home dogs. Then the Twins (44-36) bounced back with an 8-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -125 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Twins start righty David Festa, who is making his MLB debut. Festa has gone 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in AAA this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks turn to lefty Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 5.71 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite the ticket count being split down the middle 50/50, we’ve seen this line fall away from Arizona (-120 to -110) and toward Minnesota (+100 to -110). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, based on the move it appears as though smart money is backing the Twins, who are receiving sharp “dog to pick’em” steam. Montgomery has a 6.55 ERA at home compared to 4.80 on the road. Minnesota is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .301 with a 3.90 ERA. Arizona is 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .246 with a 5.17 ERA. The Twins are hitting .277 against lefties this season, ranking 1st in MLB against southpaws.
3:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-110, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
The Giants (39-42) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as +105 home dogs, taking the second game 5-1 as -130 home favorites and then winning again last night 4-3 as a -110 home pick’em. In this late afternoon series finale, the Cubs (37-44) go with lefty Shota Imanaga (7-2, 2.96 ERA) and the Giants rebuttal with righty Jordan Hicks (4-4, 3.24 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 road favorite and San Francisco a -105 home dog. The public thinks the Cubs are due for a win and can’t possibly lose all four games in the series. However, despite receiving 61% of bets we’ve seen the Cubs remain frozen at their current price of even tick down slightly from -115 to -110. This signals some sneaky sharp reverse line movement on the Giants to finish off the sweep. San Francisco is only receiving 39% of moneyline bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. The Giants have the better bats, hitting .245 with 355 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .230 with 334 runs scored. San Francisco is 23-17 at home. Chicago is 15-26 on the road. Imanaga has a 6.00 ERA in four June starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 21 innings pitched. Hicks has a 2.68 ERA at home compared to 3.68 on the road. The Giants are hitting .267 against lefties this season, ranking 4th-best in MLB against southpaws.
7:45 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 7.5)
The Reds (37-43) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as -135 home favorites. On the flip side, the Cardinals (41-38) just took two of three against the Braves, winning the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader 4-1 as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Reds hand the ball to lefty Andrew Abbott (6-6, 3.40 ERA) and the Cardinals go with righty Miles Mikolas (6-6, 4.68 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Cincinnati a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals laying modest chalk at home, steaming St. Louis up from -130 to -140. The Cardinals are receiving 63% of moneyline bets, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Cardinals are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .269 with a 3.70 ERA. The Reds are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .237 with a 4.34 ERA. St. Louis is 22-16 at home. Cincinnati is 17-20 on the road. Mikolas has a 2.49 ERA in four June starts, allowing 7 runs in 25.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals are 6-2 in Mikolas’ last eight starts.
