Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only 7-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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3:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-155, 9.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Giants (17-21) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-0 as -165 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-6 as -170 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Giants hand the ball to righty Keaton Winn (3-4, 4.41 ERA) and the Rockies (8-28) counter with fellow righty Cal Quantrill (1-3, 4.31 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -145 road favorite and Colorado a +130 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and banking on the Giants to complete the sweep, steaming San Francisco up from -145 to -155. The Giants are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. Road favorites are 113-73 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season. San Francisco has the better offense, hitting .241 with 145 runs scored compared to Colorado hitting .235 with 129 runs scored. The Giants also have the better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 4.51 vs 5.67 for the Rockies. San Francisco is 10-6 in day games. Colorado is just 3-11 in day games. Thursday favorites are 30-15 (67%) with a 15% ROI this season. Fading Colorado has resulted in a 28-8 record (78%) with a 23% ROI this season.
7:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Cardinals (15-21) are 2-7 over their last nine games and just dropped a two-game series to the Mets, losing Tuesday’s finale 7-5 as -125 home favorites. Similarly, the Brewers (21-15) have lost four of their last five and just dropped two of three against the Royals, losing Wednesday’s series finale 6-4 as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals tap righty Sonny Gray (4-1, 0.89 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with fellow righty Tobias Myers (0-2, 6.23 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -115 home favorite and St. Louis a +105 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite the even ticket count we’ve seen the Cardinals get steamed all the way from +105 to -140. This indicates sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on St. Louis. The Cardinals are receiving 51% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, indicating an undecided public but also heavy wiseguy support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Road favorites off a loss, like St. Louis here, are 48-26 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8.5 to 8, with some shops even hinting at a move down to 7.5. Favorites in a game in which the total falls at least a half run are 116-57 (67%) with a 14% ROI. The Cardinals also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off yesterday while the Brewers played on the road at Kansas City.
9:38 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-115, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Royals (22-16) just took two of three from the Brewers, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-4 as -120 home favorites. Similarly, the Angels (14-23) just took two of three from the Pirates, winning 5-4 yesterday as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Royals start righty Michael Wacha (1-4, 5.50 ERA) and the Angels send out lefty Reid Detmers (3-3, 4.24 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 home favorite and Kansas City a -105 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Royals as a short dog, steaming Kansas City all the way to a -115 road favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Royals. Kansas City is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split along with a 20-cent steam move in the favor. Road favorites are 113-73 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season. Thursday favorites are 30-15 (67%) with a 15% ROI. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 61-42 (59%) with an 11% ROI. Kansas City also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Royals have scored more runs than the Angels (175 vs 154) and have the better bullpen ERA (3.87 vs 4.93). Kansas City is +46 in run differential. Los Angeles is -34.
