Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (-140, 9.5)
The Reds (16-13) won last night’s series opener 3-1, taking care of business as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (12-17) hand the ball to righty Miles Mikolas (0-2, 5.70 ERA) and the Reds counter with fellow righty Brady Singer (4-0, 3.62 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -130 home favorite and St. Louis a +115 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Reds at home, steaming Cincinnati up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Reds are taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Reds are receiving 57% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split, further evidence of the bigger, wiseguy wagers playing the Reds at home.
Home favorites, like the Reds here, are 188-97 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 99-44 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 73-29 (72%) with a 15% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 186-103 (64%) with a 6% ROI.
The Reds have the more explosive bats, hitting 33 homers and scoring 153 runs compared to the Cardinals only hitting 24 homers and scoring 131 runs.
The Reds are 7-6 at home this season. The Cardinals are 2-12 on the road.
Mikolas has a 6.38 ERA in four April starts and St. Louis has lost all four starts. The Reds also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.46 compared to 4.70 for the Cardinals.
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (-120, 7.5)
The Astros (15-13) took last night’s series opener 8-5, cashing -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers (18-11) turn to righty Reese Olson (3-1, 3.29 ERA) and the Astros send out fellow righty Ryan Gusto (3-1, 2.78 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Astros at a cheap coin-flip price, steaming Houston up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Astros are only receiving 38% of moneyline bets but 53% of moneyline dollars, a “fade the trendy dog” sharp contrarian discrepancy. At Circa, the Astros are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the pro wagers out in the desert backing Houston at home.
Home favorites, like the Astros here, are 188-97 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 99-44 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 73-29 (72%) with a 15% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 186-103 (64%) with a 6% ROI.
When both teams are above .500, the home favorite is 37-22 (63%) with a 6% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 54-23 (70%) with a 12% ROI.
Houston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Astros are 10-6 at home this season. The Tigers are 5-8 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-185, 7.5)
The Angels (12-15) just got swept by the Twins, losing the series finale 5-0 as +150 road dogs. On the other hand, the Mariners (16-12) just took two of three against the Marlins, winning the series finale 7-0 as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Angels trot out righty Jack Kochanowicz (1-3, 5.47 ERA) and the Mariners rebuttal with fellow righty Bryce Miller (1-3, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -165 home favorite and Los Angeles a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Mariners at home, steaming Seattle up from -165 to -185.
At Circa, the Mariners are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing Seattle out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Mariners here, are 188-97 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 99-44 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 73-29 (72%) with a 15% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 186-103 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 120-50 (71%) with a 7% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite 32-11 (74%) with a 22% ROI.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Seattle has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.69 compared to 4.95 for Los Angeles (4th worst in MLB).
The Mariners have the better bats, hitting .237 with 138 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting only .212 with 100 runs scored.
Kochanowicz has a 6.20 ERA in four April starts. The Angels have gone 1-3 in those games. He has a 7.04 ERA on the road this season in three starts overall.
The Mariners are 10-6 at home this season. The Angels are 7-11 on the road.
