Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 8)
The Phillies (72-53) took last night’s Interleague series opener 12-7, coming through as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners (68-58) turn to righty Bryce Miller (2-5, 5.73 ERA) and the Phillies counter with lefty Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -165 home favorite and Seattle a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t afraid of the relatively expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -165 to -200.
At Circa, the Phillies are receiving 71% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the wiseguy desert wagers backing the home team.
Interleague home favorites in the second game of a series after winning the first game are 45-24 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. The Phillies are 42-15 (74%) with a 15% ROI when favored and receiving line movement in their direction.
Philadelphia has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Sanchez has a 1.80 ERA in three August starts. He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He is 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Miller is being activated off the injured list and will make his first start since June 6th. He is 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA on the road.
The Phillies are 38-21 at home. The Mariners are 31-33 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-145, 9.5)
The Orioles (58-67) stole last night’s series opener 6-3, cashing as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Tomoyuki Sugano (10-5, 4.13 ERA) and the Red Sox (68-58) counter with fellow righty Walker Buehler (7-7, 5.43 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -130 home favorite and Baltimore a +110 road dog.
Sharps are banking on the Red Sox to bounce back with a win, steaming Boston up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in 56% of moneyline bets and a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
The Red Sox are 16-5 (76%) with a 27% ROI at home since July 1st, tied for the 2nd best home record in MLB.
Boston has the better bats, hitting .253 with 629 runs scored compared to Baltimore hitting .241 with 543 runs scored. The Red Sox are hitting .262 at home (6th best in MLB). The Orioles are hitting .229 on the road (27th).
Buehler has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He is 3-2 with a 4.35 ERA at home compared to 4-5 with a 6.46 ERA on the road.
Boston also has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.50 (3rd best in MLB) compared to 4.72 for Baltimore
The Red Sox are 41-24 at home. The Orioles are 28-37 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 8.5)
The Guardians (64-60) won last night’s Interleague series opener 3-1, cashing as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians tap righty Tanner Bibee (9-9, 4.54 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (60-66) go with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (5-7, 5.40 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -115 home favorite and Cleveland a -105 road dog.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 58% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing the Guardians, who won last night and feature the superior won-loss record.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Cleveland we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Arizona -115 to -125. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Diamondbacks.
Short home favorites -140 or less with a sub .500 record playing an opponent with an above .500 record are 52-39 (57%) with a 4% ROI this season. Sweet spot home favorites -125 to -140 facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Diamondbacks here, are 62-41 (60%) with a 6% ROI.
The Snakes have additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Arizona has the far superior offense, hitting .250 with 176 homers and 619 runs scored compared to Cleveland hitting .227 with 131 homers and 491 runs scored.
Bibee has a 5.74 ERA in three August starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. He has a 5.59 ERA on the road compared to 3.19 at home.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has pitched better in the month of August, posting a 4.15 ERA in three starts. Arizona is 3-0 in those starts.
Cleveland is hitting just .225 against lefties this season, ranking 27th in MLB.
