Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians (-150, 7.5)
The Mets (47-66) just dropped three of four against the Marlins, losing the series finale 2-0 as +105 home dogs. Similarly, the Guardians (57-56) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 5-0 as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mets send out lefty Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.42 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow southpaw Joey Cantillo (8-6, 3.88 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and New York a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Guardians, who added at the Trade Deadline while the Mets were sellers, steaming Cleveland up from -135 to -150.
At Circa, the Guardians are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Non-division favorites in the opening game of a new series who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Guardians here, are 94-54 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 67-34 (66%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mets are 22-32 on the road, the 6th worst road record in MLB, including 5-16 as a road underdog, the worst in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9)
The White Sox (59-52) just took two of three against the Rays, winning the series finale 9-1 as +125 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (60-51) just swept the Dodgers, winning the series finale 8-4 as +155 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the White Sox start righty Davis Martin (9-5, 3.62 ERA) and the Red Sox tap lefty Patrick Sandoval (0-0, 3.32 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -120 home favorite and Chicago a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Red Sox laying short chalk at home, driving Boston up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor is 158-101 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
When both teams are coming off a day off, which is also the case here, the home favorite is 67-34 (66%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Boston is 4-0 in Sandoval’s four starts this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in three of those four starts.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are just 1-4 in Martin’s last five starts. He posted a 6.00 ERA in five July starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 24 innings pitched.
The White Sox are hitting .235 against lefties, ranking 22nd in MLB.
Boston has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.95 (1st in MLB) compared to 3.78 for Chicago (7th).
8:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 11) at Colorado Rockies
The Rays (66-46) took last night’s Interleague series opener 13-9, hanging on as -175 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays hand the ball to newly acquired righty Freddy Peralta (5-9, 4.99 ERA) and the Rockies (45-68) go with fellow righty Gabriel Hughes (0-3, 3.33 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 road favorites and Colorado a +115 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays laying modest road chalk, steaming Tampa Bay up from -135 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their direction, like the Rays here, are 84-51 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Tampa Bay is 33-17 (66%) with a 16% ROI when favored against a below .500 team, the most profitable “chalk vs bad team” record in MLB. When the Rays are favored and receive line movement in their direction, Tampa Bay has gone 38-21 (64%) with a 12% ROI this season, also tops in MLB.
Peralta, who is making his Rays debut, will enjoy extra rest as he last pitched on July 26th.
The Rays have the edge in the bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 4.11 (16th) compared to 4.99 (27th) for the Rockies.
