Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-175, 9)
The Royals (45-62) just split a four-game series against the Tigers, winning the series finale 5-4 as +160 road dogs. On the other hand, the Twins (53-54) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning the series finale 11-8 as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals start righty Seth Lugo (4-6, 4.36 ERA) and the Twins tap fellow righty Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.69 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -160 home favorite and Kansas City a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared of the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Twins at home, steaming Minnesota up from -160 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Twins are taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Minnesota is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Minnesota has the more productive offense, registering 511 runs scored compared to 450 for Kansas City
The Twins are 7-1 in Bradley’s last eight starts. He has posted a 2.90 ERA in five July starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 30.1 innings pitched. He has posted a 3.14 ERA at home compared to 4.14 on the road.
On the other hand, Lugo has posted a 4.94 ERA in five July starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 27.1 innings pitched. He has posted a 5.40 ERA on the road compared 3.63 at home.
Minnesota is 28-26 at home. Kansas City is 19-35 on the road, the 3rd worst road team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-150, 9.5) at Athletics
The Red Sox (55-50) won last night’s series opener 4-2, hanging on as -195 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox send out lefty Jake Bennett (6-3, 2.58 ERA) and the Athletics go with fellow southpaw Gage Jump (3-6, 4.42 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -145 road favorite and the Athletics a +125 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Red Sox, pushing Boston up from -145 to -150 and even -155 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 93% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Boston offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Red Sox are 5-0 in Bennett’s last five starts. He has posted a 1.71 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 26.1 innings pitched. He has a 2.10 ERA on the road compared to 2.94 at home.
On the other hand, the A’s have gone 0-6 in Jump’s last six starts. He has posted a 7.94 ERA in four July starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 17 innings pitched.
Boston also has a drastic edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.02 (best in MLB) compared to 5.53 for the A’s (worst in MLB).
The Red Sox are hitting .261 against lefties this season, 4th best in MLB.
Boston is 30-21 on the road (5th best in MLB) while the Athletics are 16-29 at home (dead last).
9:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
The Giants (45-61) took last night’s series opener 3-0, coming through as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers (66-40) hand the ball to righty Logan Henderson (4-1, 3.05 ERA) and the Giants turn to fellow righty Landen Roupp (7-8, 3.93 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -135 road favorite and San Francisco a +115 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Brewers to bounce back with a win laying short road chalk, steaming Milwaukee up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Milwaukee has the better offense, posting a .336 OBP with 535 runs scored compared to San Francisco posting a .308 OBP with only 439 runs scored.
The Brewers offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee is 6-0 in Henderson’s last six starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, Roupp is 5-7 with a 4.64 ERA at night compared to 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA during the day.
The Brewers are 30-20 on the road, the 2nd best road team in MLB. Meanwhile, the Giants are 25-26 at home.
