Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds (-200, 9)
The White Sox (12-29) just took two of three against the Marlins, winning the series finale 4-2 as +115 home dogs. On the other hand, the Reds (20-22) just dropped two of three against the Astros, losing the series finale 6-0 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the White Sox go with righty Jonathan Cannon (2-4, 4.09 ERA) and the Reds rebuttal with lefty Andrew Abbott (2-0, 2.25 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -190 home favorite and Chicago a +170 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -190 to -200. Some shops are even creeping up toward -210.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 92% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Reds are taking in 93% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing massive one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of Cincinnati at home.
Home favorites -200 or more, like the Reds here, are 62-15 (81%) with a 13% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 49-20 (71%) with a 15% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 69-39 (64%) with a 7% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 44-17 (72%) with an 18% ROI.
The Reds have the better bats, hitting .238 with 42 homers and 198 runs scored compared to the White Sox only hitting .214 with 29 homers and 139 runs scored.
Chicago is 3-17 on the road this season, the second worst road record in MLB behind the Rockies.
The White Sox are only hitting .217 against lefties, ranking 23rd. The Reds are hitting .245 against righties, ranking 17th.
Cannon has a 5.65 ERA on the road compared to 1.17 at home. Abbott has a 0.00 ERA in two May starts, allowing zero earned runs in 9 innings pitched. He has a 1.00 ERA at home compared to 3.00 on the road.
7:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-135, 8)
The Rays (18-22) just took two of three against the Brewers but failed to earn the sweep, losing the series finale 4-2 as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays (20-20) just swept the Mariners, winning the series finale 9-1 as +155 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays hand the ball to righty Shane Baz (3-2, 4.93 ERA) and the Jays counter with fellow righty Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.86 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -120 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Jays laying short chalk at home, steaming Toronto up from -120 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Jays are receiving 68% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Jays are taking in 53% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Jays at home.
Home favorites, like the Jays here, are 245-141 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 65-30 (68%) with a 12% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 44-17 (72%) with an 18% ROI.
Toronto has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Baz has a 13.00 ERA in two May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 9 innings pitched. Berrios has a 2.84 ERA in two May starts, giving up 4 earned runs in 12.2 innings pitched. Toronto is 5-2 in Berrios’s last seven starts.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-140, 7.5) at Seattle Mariners
The Yankees (24-17) won last night’s series opener 11-5, taking care of business as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees turn to lefty Max Fried (6-0, 1.05 ERA) and the Mariners (22-18) send out righty Bryan Woo (4-1, 3.25 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -135 road favorite and Seattle a +120 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Bronx Bombers to post another road victory, driving the Yankees up from -135 to -140. Some shops are even approaching -145.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Yankees are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing New York out in Vegas.
Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Yankees here, are 202-117 (63%) with a 3% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 146-70 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees have the better bats, hitting .267 with 74 homers and 246 runs scored compared to Seattle only hitting .242 with 56 homers and 197 runs scored.
New York is hitting .282 on the road, ranking 1st in MLB. Seattle is only hitting .215 at home, ranking 29th
Fried has a 0.64 ERA in two May starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 14 innings pitched. He has a 0.44 ERA on the road compared to 1.44 at home.
