Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 7)
The Rays (22-12) won last night’s series opener 5-1, taking care of business as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays (16-19) hand the ball to righty Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.10 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (2-1, 2.64 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 home favorite and Toronto a +100 road dog.
Sharps have once again come down in favor of the Rays laying short chalk at home, driving Tampa Bay up from -120 to -125, with a few other shops touching -130.
At Circa, the Rays are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
We’ve also seen smart money back Tampa Bay on the run-line (-1.5 at +165), as the Rays are taking in 44% of spread bets but a hefty 81% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Rays have correlative betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Gausman has a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to 1.88 at home. Meanwhile, Rasmussen is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA at home compared to a 3.86 ERA on the road.
Tampa Bay is 12-4 at home and 12-6 in night games. Toronto is 6-11 on the road and 8-10 in night games.
7:05 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at New York Yankees (-125, 8.5)
The Rangers (16-18) just dropped two of three against the Tigers, losing the series finale 7-1 as +100 road dogs. On the other hand, the Yankees (24-11) just swept the Orioles in a four-game series, winning the finale 12-1 as -240 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers tap righty Jacob deGrom (2-1, 2.01 ERA) and the Yankees go with fellow righty Elmer Rodriguez (0-1, 4.50 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -120 home favorite and Texas a +100 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Bronx Bombers laying short chalk at home, pushing New York up from -120 to -125 or even -130 across the market.
At Circa, the Yankees are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the desert wiseguys.
Pro money has also backed the Yankees on the run-line (-1.5 at +170), as New York is receiving 74% of spread bets and 85% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Yankees offer betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
New York has a sizable edge at the plate, posting a .338 OBP, .453 slugging percentage and 192 runs scored compared to Texas posting a .313 OBP, .373 slugging percentage and only 127 runs scored.
The Yankees are 12-5 at home and 16-5 in night games. The Rangers are 9-10 on the road and 10-11 in night games.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 9)
The Pirates (19-16) just swept the Reds, winning the series finale 1-0 as -125 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (16-17) just got swept by the Cubs, dropping the series finale 8-4 as +130 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates start righty Bubba Chandler (1-3, 4.97 ERA) and the Diamondbacks rebuttal with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 3.03 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Snakes laying short chalk in the desert, pushing Arizona up from -120 to -130, with some shops reaching as high as -135.
At DraftKings, Arizona is taking in 54% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Snakes are receiving only 43% of moneyline bets but a lopsided 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the Diamondbacks, especially the pros in Vegas.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 26-13 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season and 122-70 (64%) with a 4% ROI since 2025.
Arizona has buy-low value as a short favorite who just got swept against a sell-high dog who just swept their opponent.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Chandler’s last five starts. He has posted a 5.84 ERA in those past five starts. He has a 5.93 ERA on the road compared to 4.11 at home.
On the other hand, Arizona is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last four starts.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .262 at home (7th best in MLB) and the Pirates are hitting .212 on the road (28th).
